Related papers: The Implied Volatility Analysis: The South African…
We present results on simulations of a stock market with heterogeneous, cumulative information setup. We find a non-monotonic behaviour of traders' returns as a function of their information level. Particularly, the average informed agents…
We review and illustrate how the volatility smile translates into a probability distribution, the market-implied probability distribution representing believes priced in. The effects of changes in the smile are examined. Special attention…
We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal…
Stochastic volatility (SV) models mimic many of the stylized facts attributed to time series of asset returns, while maintaining conceptual simplicity. The commonly made assumption of conditionally normally distributed or…
We consider a general local-stochastic volatility model and an investor with exponential utility. For a European-style contingent claim, whose payoff may depend on either a traded or non-traded asset, we derive an explicit approximation for…
Volatility forecasting is crucial to risk management and portfolio construction. One particular challenge of assessing volatility forecasts is how to construct a robust proxy for the unknown true volatility. In this work, we show that the…
This paper examines volatility in REITs using a multivariate GARCH based model. The Multivariate VAR-GARCH technique documents the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity…
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…
Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a…
We derive an explicit asymptotic approximation for the implied volatilities of Call options written on bonds assuming the short-rate is described by an affine short-rate model. For specific affine short-rate models, we perform numerical…
Grasping the historical volatility of stock market indices and accurately estimating are two of the major focuses of those involved in the financial securities industry and derivative instruments pricing. This paper presents the results of…
Extracting market expectations has always been an important issue when making national policies and investment decisions in financial markets. In option markets, the most popular way has been to extract implied volatilities to assess the…
Various spatiotemporal and network GARCH models have recently been proposed to capture volatility interactions, such as the transmission of market risk across financial networks. These approaches rely heavily on the specification of the…
Stock market volatility forecasting is a task relevant to assessing market risk. We investigate the interaction between news and prices for the one-day-ahead volatility prediction using state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The…
We study dynamic visual representations as a proxy for investor sentiment about the stock market. Our sentiment index, GIFsentiment, is constructed from millions of posts in the Graphics Interchange Format (GIF) on a leading investment…
We price and replicate a variety of claims written on the log price $X$ and quadratic variation $[X]$ of a risky asset, modeled as a positive semimartingale, subject to stochastic volatility and jumps. The pricing and hedging formulas do…
We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the…
After a brief review of option pricing theory, we introduce various methods proposed for extracting the statistical information implicit in options prices. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of each method, the interpretation of their…
This study provides a consistent and efficient pricing method for both Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) options and the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index (VIX) options under a multiscale stochastic volatility model. To…
Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The…