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A results of numerical procedure for construction of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution for signal in the presence of background which has Poisson distribution with known value of parameter are presented. It is shown…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 S. I. Bityukov , N. V. Krasnikov

Results of numerical procedure of constructing confidence intervals for parameter of the Poisson distribution of signal events in the presence of background events with known value of parameter of Poisson distribution are presented. It is…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 S. I. Bityukov , N. V. Krasnikov , V. A. Taperechkina

We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Joel Heinrich , Craig Blocker , John Conway , Luc Demortier , Louis Lyons , Giovanni Punzi , Pekka K. Sinervo

We study exact confidence intervals and two-sided hypothesis tests for univariate parameters of stochastically increasing discrete distributions, such as the binomial and Poisson distributions. It is shown that several popular methods for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-03 MÅns Thulin , Silvelyn Zwanzig

Constructing valid inferential methods for constrained parameters in normal and Poisson distributions represents two fundamental and important problems in applied statistics, for which there is currently no unified framework for statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Hezhi Lu , Qijun Wu

A priori bound for the parameter to be estimated is incorporated into confidence intervals within frequentistic approach in a straightforward and optimal fashion, ensuring the best resolution of non-boundary values as well as robustness for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-04-06 Fyodor V. Tkachov

The construction of the Bayesian credible (confidence) interval for a Poisson observable including both the signal and background with and without systematic uncertainties is presented. Introducing the conditional probability satisfying the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-13 Yong-Sheng Zhu

In this paper we propose a procedure to evaluate Bayesian confidence intervals in counting experiments where both signal and background fluctuations are described by the Poisson statistics. The results obtained when the method is applied to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-19 F. Loparco , M. N. Mazziotta

We study the frequentist properties of confidence intervals computed by the method known to statisticians as the Profile Likelihood. It is seen that the coverage of these intervals is surprisingly good over a wide range of possible…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 Wolfgang A. Rolke , Angel M. Lopez , Jan Conrad

Using the techniques of [arXiv:0911.4271], upper bounds for a given confidence level are modified in an optimal fashion to incorporate the a priori information that the parameter being estimated is non-negative. A paradox with different…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-12-09 Fyodor V. Tkachov

We consider the power to reject false values of the parameter in Frequentist methods for the calculation of confidence intervals. We connect the power with the physical significance (reliability) of confidence intervals for a parameter…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2010-12-23 C. Giunti , M. Laveder

We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2009-10-31 J. A. Aguilar-Saavedra

We present a method of constructing statistical intervals that obtain a natural middle ground between Bayesian and frequentist statistical intervals, previously unexplored in literature: To a p% Bayesian credible interval we should assign a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Tim Ritmeester

In this paper, we derive an explicit formula for constructing the confidence interval of binomial parameter with guaranteed coverage probability. The formula overcomes the limitation of normal approximation which is asymptotic in nature and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-05-12 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou , Jorge L. Aravena

The possibility of construction of continuous analogue of Poisson distribution with the search of bounds of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution is discussed. Also, in the article is shown that the true value of a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 S. I. Bityukov , N. V. Krasnikov , V. A. Taperechkina

This contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on the case of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined in the text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence} is, in…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 G. D'Agostini

The incorporation of systematic uncertainties into confidence interval calculations has been addressed recently in a paper by Conrad et al. (Physical Review D 67 (2003) 012002). In their work, systematic uncertainities in detector…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 Gary C. Hill

We compute bias, variance, and approximate confidence intervals for the efficiency of a random selection process under various special conditions that occur in practical data analysis. We consider the following cases: a) the number of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-30 Hans Dembinski , Michael Schmelling

We present a procedure for calculating an upper limit on the number of signal events which incorporates the Poisson uncertainty in the background, estimated from control regions of one or two dimensions. For small number of signal events,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-26 K. K. Gan

In this paper, we give sufficient conditions to establish central limit theorems for boundary estimates of Poisson point processes. The considered estimates are obtained by smoothing some bias corrected extreme values of the point process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-31 Stéphane Girard , Ludovic Menneteau
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