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The dynamics of prices in financial markets has been studied intensively both experimentally (data analysis) and theoretically (models). Nevertheless, a complete stochastic characterization of volatility is still lacking. What it is well…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Michele Pasquini , Maurizio Serva

We show that assuming that the returns are independent when conditioned on the value of their variance (volatility), which itself varies in time randomly, then the distribution of returns is well described by the statistics of the sum of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-30 Hernán Larralde , Roberto Mota Navarro

The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2011-06-08 Mardavij Roozbehani , Munther A Dahleh , Sanjoy K Mitter

In this paper, we present a method of estimating the volatility of a signal that displays stochastic noise (such as a risky asset traded on an open market) utilizing Linear Predictive Coding. The main purpose is to associate volatility with…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Louis Mello

We study the estimation of leverage effect and volatility of volatility by using high-frequency data with the presence of jumps. We first construct spot volatility estimator by using the empirical characteristic function of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Qiang Liu , Zhi Liu , Wang Zhou

The dynamics of a stock market with heterogeneous agents is discussed in the framework of a recently proposed spin model for the emergence of bubbles and crashes. We relate the log returns of stock prices to magnetization in the model and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Taisei Kaizoji , Stefan Bornholdt , Yoshi Fujiwara

The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-24 Martin Tegnér , Stephen Roberts

High frequency data in finance have led to a deeper understanding on probability distributions of market prices. Several facts seem to be well stablished by empirical evidence. Specifically, probability distributions have the following…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Jaume Masoliver , Miquel Montero , Josep M. Porra

This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model, which allows for dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Wenyu Li , Yuchang Lin , Qianqian Zhu , Guodong Li

An extensive empirical literature documents a generally negative correlation, named the "leverage effect," between asset returns and changes of volatility. It is more challenging to establish such a return-volatility relationship for jumps…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-11 Markus Bibinger , Christopher Neely , Lars Winkelmann

In this study we examine the evolution of price, volume, and the bid-ask spread after extreme 15 minute intraday price changes on the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find that due to strong behavioral trading there is an overreaction. Furthermore…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 A. G. Zawadowski , J. Kertesz , G. Andor

The Generalized Lotka Voltera (GLV) formalism has been introduced in order to explain the power law distributions in the individual wealth (w_i (t)) (Pareto law) and financial markets returns (fluctuations) (r) as a result of the…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Yoram Louzoun , Sorin Solomon

For quantitative trading risk management purposes, we present a novel idea: the realized local volatility surface. Concisely, it stands for the conditional expected volatility when sudden market behaviors of the underlying occur. One is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-01 Yuming Ma , Shintaro Sengoku , Kazuhide Nakata

The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-09 Alessio Brini , Jimmie Lenz

We respond to the issues discussed by Farmer and Lillo (FL) related to our proposed approach to understanding the origin of power-law distributions in stock price fluctuations. First, we extend our previous analysis to 1000 US stocks and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-02 Vasiliki Plerou , Parameswaran Gopikrishnan , Xavier Gabaix , H. Eugene Stanley

The concepts of scale invariance, self-similarity and scaling have been fruitfully applied to the study of price fluctuations in financial markets. After a brief review of the properties of stable Levy distributions and their applications…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Rama Cont , Marc Potters , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-08-26 Carey Caginalp , Gunduz Caginalp

The present paper proposes a new framework for describing the stock price dynamics. In the traditional geometric Brownian motion model and its variants, volatility plays a vital role. The modern studies of asset pricing expand around…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-12 Ben Duan , Yutian Li , Dawei Lu , Yang Lu , Ran Zhang

Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-01-12 Abel Rodriguez , Henryk Gzyl , German Molina , Enrique ter Horst

Volume fluctuations are introduced in a statistical modelling of relativistic particle collisions. The micro-canonical ensemble is used, and the volume fluctuations are assumed to have the specific scaling properties. This leads to the KNO…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2008-11-26 V. V. Begun , M. Gaździcki , M. I. Gorenstein