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We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-14 Alan Benson , Nial Friel

Posterior sampling is a task of central importance in Bayesian inference. For many applications in Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian transfer learning, the prior distribution is unknown and needs to be estimated from samples. In practice,…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-06 Chenyang Zhong , Shouxuan Ji , Tian Zheng

As it has become common to use many computer cores in routine applications, finding good ways to parallelize popular algorithms has become increasingly important. In this paper, we present a parallelization scheme for Markov chain Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-01 Guillaume W. Basse , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

For large model spaces, the potential entrapment of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods with spike-and-slab priors poses significant challenges in posterior computation in regression models. On the other hand, maximum a posteriori…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Shamriddha De , Joyee Ghosh

We propose a new class of structured methods for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling, called DPPMC, designed for high-dimensional nonisotropic distributions where samples are correlated to reduce the variance of the estimator via determinantal point…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-31 Krzysztof Choromanski , Aldo Pacchiano , Jack Parker-Holder , Yunhao Tang

Least squares estimation of phylogenies is an established family of methods with good statistical properties. State-of-the-art least squares phylogenetic estimation proceeds by first estimating a distance matrix, which is then used to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-24 Peter B. Chi , Volodymyr M. Minin

Symbolic regression aims to discover concise, interpretable mathematical expressions that satisfy desired objectives, such as fitting data, posing a highly combinatorial optimization problem. While genetic programming has been the dominant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Zhengyao Huang , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Tiannan Xiao , Dina Ma , Zhenyu Ming , Hao Shi , Yuanhui Wen

In a recent study, Bryant, Francis and Steel investigated the concept of \enquote{future-proofing} consensus methods in phylogenetics. That is, they investigated if such methods can be robust against the introduction of additional data like…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-31 Mareike Fischer , Michael Hendriksen

The embedded hidden Markov model (EHMM) sampling method is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for state inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models which was proposed in Neal (2003); Neal et al. (2004) and extended in…

Computation · Statistics 2016-10-28 Axel Finke , Arnaud Doucet , Adam M. Johansen

Bayesian inference for factorial hidden Markov models is challenging due to the exponentially sized latent variable space. Standard Monte Carlo samplers can have difficulties effectively exploring the posterior landscape and are often…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-28 Kaspar Märtens , Michalis K Titsias , Christopher Yau

This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-01 Florian Maire , Nial Friel , Pierre Alquier

Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods become increasingly popular in applied mathematics as a tool for numerical integration with respect to complex and high-dimensional distributions. However, application of MCMC methods to heavy tailed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-01 Denis Belomestny , Leonid Iosipoi

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-03 Matias Quiroz , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn

Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-22 Thomas Krak , Jasper De Bock , Arno Siebes

We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-05 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Michael I. Jordan

Over decades, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been widely studied, with a typical application being the quantification of posterior uncertainties in Bayesian system identification of structural dynamic models. To address the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-28 Xianghao Meng , Yong Huang , James L. Beck , Kui Jiang , Hui Li

Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…

Applications · Statistics 2010-09-30 Alberto Caimo , Nial Friel

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) has been developed as a flexible family of scalable Bayesian sampling algorithms. However, there has been little theoretical analysis of the impact of minibatch size to the algorithm's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-06 Changyou Chen , Wenlin Wang , Yizhe Zhang , Qinliang Su , Lawrence Carin

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Bayesian methods for graphical log-linear marginal models have not been developed in the same extent as traditional frequentist approaches. In this work, we introduce a novel Bayesian approach for quantitative learning for such models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-04 Ioannis Ntzoufras , Claudia Tarantola , Monia Lupparelli