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It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…
The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…
We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…
This paper introduces a new simulation-based inference procedure to model and sample from multi-dimensional probability distributions given access to i.i.d.\ samples, circumventing the usual approaches of explicitly modeling the density…
Calculating averages with respect to probability measures on submanifolds is often necessary in various application areas such as molecular dynamics, computational statistical mechanics and Bayesian statistics. In recent years, various…
We consider the problem of learning two families of time-evolving random measures from indirect observations. In the first model, the signal is a Fleming--Viot diffusion, which is reversible with respect to the law of a Dirichlet process,…
We present recent advances in harmonic analysis on infinite graphs. Our approach combines combinatorial tools with new results from the theory of unbounded Hermitian operators in Hilbert space, geometry, boundary constructions, and spectral…
De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture…
We study a class of Markov chains that model the evolution of a quantum system subject to repeated measurements. Each Markov chain in this class is defined by a measure on the space of matrices. It is then given by a random product of…
We propose a Bayesian inference approach for a class of latent Markov models. These models are widely used for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data, when the interest is in studying the evolution of an individual unobservable…
The theory of dependency graphs is a powerful toolbox to prove asymptotic normality of sums of random variables. In this article, we introduce a more general notion of weighted dependency graphs and give normality criteria in this context.…
We build optimal exponential bounds for the probabilities of large deviations of sums \sum_{k=1}^nf(X_k) where (X_k) is a finite reversible Markov chain and f is an arbitrary bounded function. These bounds depend only on the stationary mean…
For a given target density, there exist an infinite number of diffusion processes which are ergodic with respect to this density. As observed in a number of papers, samplers based on nonreversible diffusion processes can significantly…
While most Bayesian nonparametric models in machine learning have focused on the Dirichlet process, the beta process, or their variants, the gamma process has recently emerged as a useful nonparametric prior in its own right. Current…
Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to…
A weighted graph $G$ with countable vertex set is bounded if there is an upper bound on the maximum of the sum of absolute values of all edge weights incident to a vertex in $G$. In this paper, we prove a fundamental result on equitable…
Nonparametric mixture models based on the Dirichlet process are an elegant alternative to finite models when the number of underlying components is unknown, but inference in such models can be slow. Existing attempts to parallelize…
We take on a Random Matrix theory viewpoint to study the spectrum of certain reversible Markov chains in random environment. As the number of states tends to infinity, we consider the global behavior of the spectrum, and the local behavior…
The problem of efficiently sampling from a set of (undirected, or directed) graphs with a given degree sequence has many applications. One approach to this problem uses a simple Markov chain, which we call the switch chain, to perform the…
A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…