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Classical change point analysis aims at (1) detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a possibly non-stationary time series and at (2) identifying regions where the mean exhibits a piecewise constant behavior. In many applications however, it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-17 Axel Bücher , Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

In this paper, we develop a multi-step estimation procedure to simultaneously estimate the varying-coefficient functions using a local-linear generalized method of moments (GMM) based on continuous moment conditions. To incorporate spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-07 Pratim Guha Niyogi , Ping-Shou Zhong , Xiaohong Joe Zhou

We propose a new statistical test to identify non-stationary frequency-modulated stochastic processes from time series data. Our method uses the instantaneous phase as a discriminatory statistics with reliable critical values derived from…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-08-08 Adrian L. Hauber , Christian Sigloch , Jens Timmer

A weakly dependent time series regression model with multivariate covariates and univariate observations is considered, for which we develop a procedure to detect whether the nonparametric conditional mean function is stable in time against…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-25 Maria Mohr , Natalie Neumeyer

Classical spectral methods are subject to two fundamental limitations: they only can account for covariance-related serial dependencies, and they require second-order stationarity. Much attention has been devoted lately to quantile-based…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-19 Stefan Birr , Stanislav Volgushev , Tobias Kley , Holger Dette , Marc Hallin

Time-varying random objects have been increasingly encountered in modern data analysis. Moreover, in a substantial number of these applications, periodic behaviour of the random objects has been observed. We develop a novel procedure to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-27 Jiazhen Xu , Andrew T. A. Wood , Tao Zou

We address the problem of predicting spatio-temporal processes with temporal patterns that vary across spatial regions, when data is obtained as a stream. That is, when the training dataset is augmented sequentially. Specifically, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-25 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

When analysing time series an important issue is to decide whether the time series is stationary or a random walk. Relaxing these notions, we consider the problem to decide in favor of the I(0)- or I(1)-property. Fixed-sample statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-01 Ansgar Steland

A new bivariate partial sum process for locally stationary time series is introduced and its weak convergence to a Brownian sheet is established. This construction enables the development of a novel self-normalized CUSUM test statistic for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-15 Florian Heinrichs

The problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) in an online fashion is of interest, due to new applications in biology, economics and social sciences. The offline version of the problem, where…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-18 Hossein Keshavarz , George Michailidis

Whilst there are a plethora of algorithms for detecting changes in mean in univariate time-series, almost all struggle in real applications where there is autocorrelated noise or where the mean fluctuates locally between the abrupt changes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-18 Gaetano Romano , Guillem Rigaill , Vincent Runge , Paul Fearnhead

It is commonly required to detect change points in sequences of random variables. In the most difficult setting of this problem, change detection must be performed sequentially with new observations being constantly received over time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-08 Gordon J Ross

We develop a timescale synthesis-based probabilistic approach for the modeling of locally stationary signals. Inspired by our previous work, the model involves zero-mean, complex Gaussian wavelet coefficients, whose distribution varies as a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-10 Adrien Meynard , Bruno Torrésani

This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-12 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead , Lyudmila Mihaylova

We extend the feature selection methodology to dependent data and propose a novel time series predictor selection scheme that accommodates statistical dependence in a more typical i.i.d sub-sampling based framework. Furthermore, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-21 Avleen S. Bijral

Combining information both within and across trajectories, we propose a simple estimator for the local regularity of the trajectories of a stochastic process. Independent trajectories are measured with errors at randomly sampled time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 Steven Golovkine , Nicolas Klutchnikoff , Valentin Patilea

A parameter estimation method is devised for a slow-fast stochastic dynamical system, where often only the slow component is observable. By using the observations only on the slow component, the system parameters are estimated by working on…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-03-20 Jian Ren , Jinqiao Duan

Non-stationarity affects the sensitivity of change detection in correlated systems described by sets of measurable variables. We study this by projecting onto different principal components. Non-stationarity is modeled as multiple normal…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-06-22 Henrik M. Bette , Michael Schreckenberg , Thomas Guhr

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of a broad range of variations of the stochastic proximal point method (SPPM). Proximal point methods have attracted considerable interest owing to their numerical stability and robustness…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Peter Richtárik , Abdurakhmon Sadiev , Yury Demidovich

The problem of change-point estimation is considered under a general framework where the data are generated by unknown stationary ergodic process distributions. In this context, the consistent estimation of the number of change-points is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-15 Azaden Khaleghi , Daniil Ryabko