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Without imposing prior distributional knowledge underlying multivariate time series of interest, we propose a nonparametric change-point detection approach to estimate the number of change points and their locations along the temporal axis.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-13 Xiaodong Wang , Fushing Hsieh

This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-12 Wilfredo Palma , Ricardo Olea

This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-06-10 Vladimir Spokoiny

Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Fabian Mies

In this paper, we present a change point detection method for detecting change points in multivariate nonstationary wind speed time series. The change point method identifies changes in the covariance structure and decomposes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Sakitha Ariyarathne , Harsha Gangammanavar , Raanju R. Sundararajan

We present a general and flexible framework for detecting regime changes in complex, non-stationary data across multi-trial experiments. Traditional change point detection methods focus on identifying abrupt changes within a single time…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Anass B. El-Yaagoubi , Jean-Marc Freyermuth , Hernando Ombao

We propose a novel approach for change-point detection and parameter learning in multivariate non-stationary time series exhibiting oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the process through a piecewise function defined by a sum of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-02 Nicolas Bianco , Lorenzo Cappello

We study sequential change-point detection for spatio-temporal point processes, where actionable detection requires not only identifying when a distributional change occurs but also localizing where it manifests in space. While classical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Wenbin Zhou , Liyan Xie , Shixiang Zhu

We analyze stochastic algorithms for optimizing nonconvex, nonsmooth finite-sum problems, where the nonconvex part is smooth and the nonsmooth part is convex. Surprisingly, unlike the smooth case, our knowledge of this fundamental problem…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-05-24 Sashank J. Reddi , Suvrit Sra , Barnabas Poczos , Alex Smola

We consider the problem of locating a jump discontinuity (change-point) in a smooth parametric regression model with a bounded covariate. It is assumed that one can sample the covariate at different values and measure the corresponding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-14 Yan Lan , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

Statistical models incorporating change points are common in practice, especially in the area of biomedicine. This approach is appealing in that a specific parameter is introduced to account for the abrupt change in the response variable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Hongling Zhou , Kung-Yee Liang

This work delves into presenting a probabilistic method for analyzing linear process data with weakly dependent innovations, focusing on detecting change-points in the mean and estimating its spectral density. We develop a test for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Ramkrishna Jyoti Samanta

In present paper we suggest a new universal approach to study complex systems by microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic methods. We discuss new possibilities of extracting information on nonstationarity, unsteadiness and non-Markovity of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2007-05-23 Renat M. Yulmetyev , Anatolii V. Mokshin , Peter Hänggi

The estimation of static parameters in dynamical systems and control theory has been extensively studied, with significant progress made in estimating varying parameters in specific system types. Suppose, in the general case, we have data…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-10 Jamiree Harrison , Enoch Yeung

In this article, we primarily propose a novel Bayesian characterization of stationary and nonstationary stochastic processes. In practice, this theory aims to distinguish between global stationarity and nonstationarity for both parametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Sucharita Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-01 Luca Ambrogioni , Eric Maris

We investigate sequential change point estimation and detection in univariate nonparametric settings, where a stream of independent observations from sub-Gaussian distributions with a common variance factor and piecewise-constant but…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-16 Yi Yu , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

We propose a novel and unified framework for change-point estimation in multivariate time series. The proposed method is fully nonparametric, enjoys effortless tuning and is robust to temporal dependence. One salient and distinct feature of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-12 Zifeng Zhao , Feiyu Jiang , Xiaofeng Shao

Regularly varying stochastic processes model extreme dependence between process values at different locations and/or time points. For such processes we propose a two-step parameter estimation of the extremogram, when some part of the domain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Sven Buhl , Claudia Klüppelberg

In this paper we consider a regression model that allows for time series covariates as well as heteroscedasticity with a regression function that is modelled nonparametrically. We assume that the regression function changes at some unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Maria Mohr , Leonie Selk