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The study efforts to explore and extend the crisis predictability by synthetically reviewing and comparing a full mixture of early warning models into two constitutions: crisis identifications and predictive models. Given empirical results…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-21 Peiwan Wang , Lu Zong

We propose a pairs trading model that incorporates a time-varying volatility of the Constant Elasticity of Variance type. Our approach is based on stochastic control techniques; given a fixed time horizon and a portfolio of two…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-05 T. N. Li , A. Tourin

In this article we look at stochastic processes with uncertain parameters, and consider different ways in which information is obtained when carrying out observations. For example we focus on the case of a the random evolution of a traded…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-08 Will Hicks

Starting from the characterization of the past time evolution of market prices in terms of two fundamental indicators, price velocity and price acceleration, we construct a general classification of the possible patterns characterizing the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 J. V. Andersen , S. Gluzman , D. Sornette

This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-11-21 Laurent Callot , Johannes Tang Kristensen

This work develops techniques for the sequential detection and location estimation of transient changes in the volatility (standard deviation) of time series data. In particular, we introduce a class of change detection algorithms based on…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-12-29 Alireza Ahrabian , Nazli Farajidavar , Clive Cheong-Took , Payam Barnaghi

It is shown that prize changes of the US dollar - German Mark exchange rates upon different delay times can be regarded as a stochastic Marcovian process. Furthermore we show that from the empirical data the Kramers-Moyal coefficients can…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-10-31 Rudolf Friedrich , Joachim Peinke , Christoph Renner

This paper introduces a martingale that characterizes two properties of evolving forecast distributions. Ideal forecasts of a future event behave as martingales, sequen- tially updating the forecast to leverage the available information as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-17 Dean P. Foster , Robert A. Stine

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-01 Hermann G. Matthies , Elmar Zander , Bojana Rosic , Alexander Litvinenko

We propose a new generalisation of jump-telegraph process with variable velocities and jumps. Amplitude of the jumps and velocity values are random, and they depend on the time spent by the process in the previous state of the underlying…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-22 Nikita Ratanov

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model including time-varying predictors in dynamic network inference. The model is applied to infer the dependence structure among financial markets during the global financial crisis, estimating effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-08 Daniele Durante , David B. Dunson

Time series forecasting is widely used in a multitude of domains. In this paper, we present four models to predict the stock price using the SPX index as input time series data. The martingale and ordinary linear models require the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-23 Aaron Elliot , Cheng Hua Hsu

The vast literature on exchange rate fluctuations estimates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). Most ERPT studies consider annually aggregated data for developed or large developing countries for estimating ERPT. These estimates vary…

General Economics · Economics 2023-03-08 Md Deluair Hossen

Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-17 Thomas Bury

Taylor's law describes the fluctuation characteristics underlying a system in which the variance of an event within a time span grows by a power law with respect to the mean. Although Taylor's law has been applied in many natural and social…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-06-08 Tatsuru Kobayashi , Kumiko Tanaka-Ishii

We revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. Counterintuitively, we show that when the underlying dynamics are stable the parameters of this model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-03 Ali Jadbabaie , Horia Mania , Devavrat Shah , Suvrit Sra

Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-24 Tze Leung Lai , Shulamith T. Gross , David Bo Shen

We discovered that past changes in the market correlation structure are significantly related with future changes in the market volatility. By using correlation-based information filtering networks we device a new tool for forecasting the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-31 Nicoló Musmeci , Tomaso Aste , Tiziana Di Matteo

The paper tests the validity of the critique of the fiscal theory of the price level. A stochastic general equilibrium model with continuous time is constructed. An active fiscal policy and a passive monetary policy have been set. Monetary…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-03-05 Andrey Kofnov

In todays global economy, accuracy in predicting macro-economic parameters such as the foreign the exchange rate or at least estimating the trend correctly is of key importance for any future investment. In recent times, the use of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-25 Manav Kaushik , A K Giri
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