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We propose that predictability is a prerequisite for profitability on financial markets. We look at ways to measure predictability of price changes using information theoretic approach and employ them on all historical data available for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-11-13 Paweł Fiedor

The paper discusses a path-wise approach to stock price modelling.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Rimas Norvaisa

In this paper, we compare various approaches to stock price prediction using neural networks. We analyze the performance fully connected, convolutional, and recurrent architectures in predicting the next day value of S&P 500 index based on…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-29 Firuz Kamalov , Linda Smail , Ikhlaas Gurrib

This research evaluates the performance of an Artificial Neural Network based prediction system that was employed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange for the period 21-Sep-2016 to 11-Oct-2016. It is a follow-up to a previous paper in which the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-12-09 Barack Wamkaya Wanjawa

The proposed system aims to use various machine learning algorithms to enhance financial prediction and generate highly accurate analyses. It introduces an AI-driven platform which offers inflation-analysis, stock market prediction, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Vishal Patil , Kavya Bhand , Kaustubh Mukdam , Kavya Sharma , Manas Kawtikwar , Prajwal Kavhar , Hridayansh Kaware

Nowadays, machine learning methods have been widely used in stock prediction. Traditional approaches assume an identical data distribution, under which a learned model on the training data is fixed and applied directly in the test data.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-18 Chi Chen , Li Zhao , Wei Cao , Jiang Bian , Chunxiao Xing

In recent years, the dominance of machine learning in stock market forecasting has been evident. While these models have shown decreasing prediction errors, their robustness across different datasets has been a concern. A successful stock…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-18 Peiwan Wang , Chenhao Cui , Yong Li

The stock market plays a pivotal role in economic development, yet its intricate volatility poses challenges for investors. Consequently, research and accurate predictions of stock price movements are crucial for mitigating risks.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Zhuangwei Shi

The paper studies intraday price movement of stocks that is considered as an image classification problem. Using a CNN-based model we make a compelling case for the high-level relationship between the first hour of trading and the close.…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-26 Matej Steinbacher

In the current stock market, computer science and technology are more and more widely used to analyse stocks. Not same as most related machine learning stock price prediction work, this work study the predicting the tendency of the stock…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-07-25 Fengyu Han , Yue Wang

This paper introduced key aspects of applying Machine Learning (ML) models, improved trading strategies, and the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM) to optimize stock option forecasting and trading results. It presented the findings of the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-30 Zheng Cao , Raymond Guo , Wenyu Du , Jiayi Gao , Kirill V. Golubnichiy

We propose and experimentally demonstrate an innovative stock index prediction method using a weighted optical reservoir computing system. We construct fundamental market data combined with macroeconomic data and technical indicators to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-02 Fang Wang , Ting Bu , Yuping Huang

We applied Deep Q-Network with a Convolutional Neural Network function approximator, which takes stock chart images as input, for making global stock market predictions. Our model not only yields profit in the stock market of the country…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-11-27 Jinho Lee , Raehyun Kim , Yookyung Koh , Jaewoo Kang

This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-13 Jiho Park

The increasing availability of "big" (large volume) social media data has motivated a great deal of research in applying sentiment analysis to predict the movement of prices within financial markets. Previous work in this field investigates…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2018-11-08 Ellie Birbeck , Dave Cliff

Predicting stock market movements is a well-known problem of interest. Now-a-days social media is perfectly representing the public sentiment and opinion about current events. Especially, twitter has attracted a lot of attention from…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2016-10-31 Venkata Sasank Pagolu , Kamal Nayan Reddy Challa , Ganapati Panda , Babita Majhi

Company fundamentals are key to assessing companies' financial and overall success and stability. Forecasting them is important in multiple fields, including investing and econometrics. While statistical and contemporary machine learning…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-04 Felix Divo , Eric Endress , Kevin Endler , Kristian Kersting , Devendra Singh Dhami

Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, i.e., future real-world occurrences, and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a desired state. An event prediction method learns the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Janik-Vasily Benzin , Stefanie Rinderle-Ma

Predicting another person's upcoming action to build an appropriate response is a regular occurrence in the domain of motor control. In this review we discuss conceptual and experimental approaches aiming at the neural basis of predicting…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2014-09-25 C. D. Vargas , M. L. Rangel , A. Galves

Time series forecasting is widely used in a multitude of domains. In this paper, we present four models to predict the stock price using the SPX index as input time series data. The martingale and ordinary linear models require the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-23 Aaron Elliot , Cheng Hua Hsu