Related papers: 'Beating the news' with EMBERS: Forecasting Civil …

Nowadays, with the unprecedented penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs), the necessity of an efficient energy forecasting model is more demanding than before. Generally, forecasting models are trained using observed…

For both investors and policymakers, forecasting the stock market is essential as it serves as an indicator of economic well-being. To this end, we harness the power of social media data, a rich source of public sentiment, to enhance the…

We introduce a system for automatically generating warnings of imminent or current cyber-threats. Our system leverages the communication of malicious actors on the darkweb, as well as activity of cyber security experts on social media…

All numerical weather prediction models used for the wind industry need to produce their forecasts starting from the main synoptic hours 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC, once the analysis becomes available. The six-hour latency time between two…

Social movements are dominated by storytelling, as narratives play a key role in how communities involved in these movements shape their identities. Thus, recognizing the accepted narratives of different communities is central to…

Social media like Twitter provide a common platform to share and communicate personal experiences with other people. People often post their life experiences, local news, and events on social media to inform others. Many rescue agencies…

Forecasting elections -- a challenging, high-stakes problem -- is the subject of much uncertainty, subjectivity, and media scrutiny. To shed light on this process, we develop a method for forecasting elections from the perspective of…

Forecasting social media activity can be of practical use in many scenarios, from understanding trends, such as which topics are likely to engage more users in the coming week, to identifying unusual behavior, such as coordinated…

Relevant research has been highlighted in the computing community to develop machine learning models capable of predicting the occurrence of crimes, analyzing contexts of crimes, extracting profiles of individuals linked to crime, and…

One of the fundamental challenges in the prediction of dynamic agents is robustness. Usually, most predictions are deterministic estimates of future states which are over-confident and prone to error. Recently, few works have addressed…

Decision-makers often observe the occurrence of events through a reporting process. City governments, for example, rely on resident reports to find and then resolve urban infrastructural problems such as fallen street trees, flooded…

Detecting and characterizing emerging topics of discussion and consumer trends through analysis of Internet data is of great interest to businesses. This paper considers the problem of monitoring the Web to spot emerging memes - distinctive…

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused international social tension and unrest. Besides the crisis itself, there are growing signs of rising conflict potential of societies around the world. Indicators of global mood changes are hard to detect…

In an era where social media platforms are central to political communication, the activity of bots raises pressing concerns about amplification, manipulation, and misinformation. Drawing on more than 315 million tweets posted from August…

Humanitarian agencies must be prepared to mobilize quickly in response to complex emergencies, and their effectiveness depends on their ability to identify, anticipate, and prepare for future needs. These are typically highly uncertain…

Social media has become a major driver of social change, by facilitating the formation of online social movements. Automatically understanding the perspectives driving the movement and the voices opposing it, is a challenging task as…

Using a state-of-the-art large language model, we extract forward-looking and context-sensitive signals related to inflation and unemployment in the euro area from millions of Reddit submissions and comments. We develop daily indicators…

Numerous social movements (SMs) around the world help support the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Understanding how key events shape SMs is key to the achievement of the SDGs. We have developed SMART (Social Media Analysis &…

Time-to-event analysis is a branch of statistics that has increased in popularity during the last decades due to its many application fields, such as predictive maintenance, customer churn prediction and population lifetime estimation. In…

The explosion of Open Educational Resources (OERs) in the recent years creates the demand for scalable, automatic approaches to process and evaluate OERs, with the end goal of identifying and recommending the most suitable educational…