Related papers: Efficient Modeling and Forecasting of the Electric…
To reach ambitious European CO$_2$ emission reduction targets, most scenarios of future European electricity systems rely on large shares of wind and solar photovoltaic power generation. We interpolate between two concepts for balancing the…
Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical for strategic decision-making in deregulated electricity markets, where volatility stems from complex supply-demand dynamics and external factors. Traditional point forecasts often fail to…
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) plays a critical role in power system operation and market decision making. While existing review studies have provided valuable insights into forecasting horizons, market mechanisms, and evaluation…
In electricity markets, it is sensible to use a two-factor model with mean reversion for spot prices. One of the factors is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process driven by a Brownian motion and accounts for the small variations. The other…
Solar prosumers, residential electricity consumers equipped with photovoltaic (PV) systems and battery storage, are transforming electricity markets. Their interactions with the transmission grid under varying tariff designs are not yet…
Studies looking at electricity market designs for very high shares of wind and solar often conclude that the energy-only market will break down. Without fuel costs, it is said that there is nothing to set prices. Symptoms of breakdown…
The smart grid vision entails advanced information technology and data analytics to enhance the efficiency, sustainability, and economics of the power grid infrastructure. Aligned to this end, modern statistical learning tools are leveraged…
Models for long-term investment planning of the power system typically return a single optimal solution per set of cost assumptions. However, typically there are many near-optimal alternatives that stand out due to other attractive…
In this paper we introduce an additive two-factor model for electricity futures prices based on Normal Inverse Gaussian L\'evy processes, that fulfills a no-overlapping-arbitrage (NOA) condition. We compute European option prices by Fourier…
This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated L\'{e}vy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of L\'{e}vy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main…
Probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in power trading because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. At the same time, methods are…
Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient…
Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid. This study…
Short-term electricity markets are becoming more relevant due to less-predictable renewable energy sources, attracting considerable attention from the industry. The balancing market is the closest to real-time and the most volatile among…
To cater the rapidly growing demand for electricity leading to the integration of renewable energy sources in power system. Due to intermittent nature of renewables, it also brings challenges for research community during the planning and…
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. Demand and supply are balanced on a knife-edge because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is…
The changes in electricity markets expose RES producers and electricity traders to various risks, among which the price and the volume risk play a very important role. In this research, a portfolio building strategies are presented, which…
This paper focuses on the problem of energy imbalance management in amicrogrid. The problem is investigated from the power market perspective. Unlike the traditional power grid, a microgrid can obtain extra energy froma renewable energy…
This working paper presents a comprehensive study on the development and analysis of various electricity market models, focusing on continuous, discrete, and fractional-order approaches. The continuous model captures the ongoing…
For a cost efficient design of a future renewable European electricity system, the placement of renewable generation capacity will seek to exploit locations with good resource quality, that is for instance onshore wind in countries…