Related papers: Efficient Modeling and Forecasting of the Electric…
In the Paris agreement of 2015, it was decided to reduce the CO2 emissions of the energy sector to zero by 2050 and to restrict the global mean temperature increase to 1.5 degree Celcius above the pre-industrial level. Such commitments are…
Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is vital for short-term electricity markets, yet the multivariate nature of day-ahead prices - spanning 24 consecutive hours - remains underexplored. At the same time, real-time…
This paper combines a techno-economic energy system model with an econometric model to maximise electricity price forecasting accuracy. The proposed combination model is tested on the German day-ahead wholesale electricity market. Our paper…
We analyze long-term memory properties of hourly prices of electricity in the Czech Republic between 2009 and 2012. As the dynamics of the electricity prices is dominated by cycles -- mainly intraday and daily -- we opt for the detrended…
Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…
Corporate renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) are long-term contracts that enable companies to source renewable energy without having to develop and operate their own capacities. Typically, producers and consumers agree on a fixed…
We study the prices of European Emission Allowances (EUA), whereby we analyze their uncertainty and dependencies on related energy prices (natural gas, coal, and oil). We propose a probabilistic multivariate conditional time series model…
Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making…
The availability of accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts is pivotal for electricity market participants. In the context of trade liberalisation and market harmonisation in the European markets, accurate price forecasting becomes…
The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…
Volatile electrical energy prices are a challenge and an opportunity for small and medium-size companies in energy-intensive industries. By using electrical energy storage and/or an adaptation of production processes, companies can…
Inspired from recent insights into the common ground of machine learning, optimization and decision-making, this paper proposes an easy-to-implement, but effective procedure to enhance both the quality of renewable energy forecasts and the…
In this paper we include dependency structures for electricity price forecasting and forecasting evaluation. We work with off-peak and peak time series from the German-Austrian day-ahead price, hence we analyze bivariate data. We first…
In wholesale electricity markets, prices fluctuate widely from hour to hour and electricity generators price-hedge their output using longer-term contracts, such as monthly base futures. Consequently, the incentives they face to drive up…
Precise day-ahead forecasts for electricity prices are crucial to ensure efficient portfolio management, support strategic decision-making for power plant operations, enable efficient battery storage optimization, and facilitate demand…
Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to increasing renewable generation variability, market integration, and the continent's physically interconnected power system. While recent advances in foundation…
The increasing interest in demand-side management (DSM) as part of the energy cost optimization calls for effective methods to determine representative electricity prices for energy optimization and scheduling investigations. We propose a…
The increasing transmission capacity needs in a future energy system raise the question how associated costs should be allocated to the users of a strengthened power grid. In contrast to straightforward oversimplified methods, a flow…
Accurate power forecasting from renewable energy sources (RES) is crucial for integrating additional RES capacity into the power system and realizing sustainability goals. This work emphasizes the importance of integrating decentralized…
While the field of electricity price forecasting has benefited from plenty of contributions in the last two decades, it arguably lacks a rigorous approach to evaluating new predictive algorithms. The latter are often compared using unique,…