Related papers: A method for comparing chess openings
This paper has a twofold scope. The first one is to clarify and put in evidence the isomorphic character of two theories developed in quite different fields: on one side, threshold logic, on the other side, simple games. One of the main…
We present a multivariate one-sided sensitivity analysis for matched observational studies, appropriate when the researcher has specified that a given causal mechanism should manifest itself in effects on multiple outcome variables in a…
There are various approaches to the problem of how one is supposed to conduct a statistical analysis. Different analyses can lead to contradictory conclusions in some problems so this is not a satisfactory state of affairs. It seems that…
We study the merging and the testing of opinions in the context of a prediction model. In the absence of incentive problems, opinions can be tested and rejected, regardless of whether or not data produces consensus among Bayesian agents. In…
The usual way of testing probability forecasts in game-theoretic probability is via construction of test martingales. The standard assumption is that all forecasts are output by the same forecaster. In this paper I will discuss possible…
Multiple testing of a single hypothesis and testing multiple hypotheses are usually done in terms of p-values. In this paper we replace p-values with their natural competitor, e-values, which are closely related to betting, Bayes factors,…
Paired comparison models, such as the Bradley-Terry (1952) model and its variants, are commonly used to measure competitor strength in games and sports. Extensions have been proposed to account for order effects (e.g., home-field advantage)…
Algorithmic fairness is receiving significant attention in the academic and broader literature due to the increasing use of predictive algorithms, including those based on artificial intelligence. One benefit of this trend is that algorithm…
Subjective assessment tests are often employed to evaluate image processing systems, notably image and video compression, super-resolution among others and have been used as an indisputable way to provide evidence of the performance of an…
This paper develops an inconsistency measure on conditional probabilistic knowledge bases. The measure is based on fundamental principles for inconsistency measures and thus provides a solid theoretical framework for the treatment of…
A recurring debate in the philosophy of statistics concerns what, exactly, should count as a measure of evidence for or against a given hypothesis. P-values, likelihood ratios, and Bayes factors all have their defenders. In this paper we…
We introduce a new conservative test for quantifying the consistency of two or more datasets. The test is based on the Bayesian answer to the question, ``How much more probable is it that all my data were generated from the same model…
There is available an ever-increasing variety of procedures for managing uncertainty. These methods are discussed in the literature of artificial intelligence, as well as in the literature of philosophy of science. Heretofore these methods…
Probabilistic concurrent systems are foundational models for modern mobile computing. In this paper, a unifying approach to probabilistic testing equivalences is proposed. With the help of a new distribution-based semantics for…
Dice control involves "setting" the dice and then throwing them carefully, in the hope of influencing the outcomes and gaining an advantage at craps. How does one test for this ability? To specify the alternative hypothesis, we need a…
We present quantitative probing as a model-agnostic framework for validating causal models in the presence of quantitative domain knowledge. The method is constructed as an analogue of the train/test split in correlation-based machine…
This paper proposes a new framework for evaluating capability sets by incorporating individual preferences over the diversity of accessible options. Building on the Capability Approach, we introduce a compromise method that balances between…
We provide practical, efficient, and nonparametric methods for auditing the fairness of deployed classification and regression models. Whereas previous work relies on a fixed-sample size, our methods are sequential and allow for the…
The article describes a model of chess based on information theory. A mathematical model of the partial depth scheme is outlined and a formula for the partial depth added for each ply is calculated from the principles of the model. An…
A new method based on the rejection sampling for finding statistical tests is proposed. This method is conceptually intuitive, easy to implement, and applicable for arbitrary dimension. To illustrate its potential applicability, three…