Related papers: Systematic co-occurrence of tail correlation funct…
We say that a random variable is $light$-$tailed$ if moments of order $2+\epsilon$ are finite for some $\epsilon>0$; otherwise, we say that it is $heavy$-$tailed$. We study queueing networks that operate under the Max-Weight scheduling…
We use characteristic functions to construct alpha(x)-multistable measures and integrals, where the measures behave locally like alpha-stable measures, but with the stability index alpha(x) varying with time x. This enables us to construct…
We address the problem of estimating the Weibull tail-coefficient which is the regular variation exponent of the inverse failure rate function. We propose a family of estimators of this coefficient and an associate extreme quantile…
We consider a stationary random field indexed by an increasing sequence of subsets of $\mathbb{Z}^d$ obeying a very broad geometrical assumption on how the sequence expands. Under certain mixing and local conditions, we show how the tail…
The multivariate extremal index function relates the asymptotic distribution of the vector of pointwise maxima of a multivariate stationary sequence to that of the independent sequence from the same stationary distribution. It also measures…
For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…
We construct a Banach rearrangement invariant norm on the measurable space for which the finiteness of this norm for measurable function (random variable) is equivalent to suitable tail (heavy tail and light tail) behavior. We investigate…
This study examines the varying coefficient model in tail index regression. The varying coefficient model is an efficient semiparametric model that avoids the curse of dimensionality when including large covariates in the model. In fact,…
We consider heavy-tailed distributions and compare the well-known estimators of the tail index, based on extreme value theory with a comparatively recent estimator based on a different idea.
Consider $n$ real/complex, independent/dependent random variables with respective tail bounds and $g$ a measurable function of the r.v.'s. Consider $f$ the "sharpest" tail bound of $g$ (sharpest in the sense that if $f$ were any less, then…
Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…
A bivariate random vector can exhibit either asymptotic independence or dependence between the largest values of its components. When used as a statistical model for risk assessment in fields such as finance, insurance or meteorology, it is…
To characterize temporal correlations in temporal networks, we define an autocorrelation function (ACF) for temporal networks in terms of the similarity between two snapshot networks separated by a certain time interval. By employing a…
A random coefficient autoregressive process is deeply investigated in which the coefficients are correlated. First we look at the existence of a strictly stationary causal solution, we give the second-order stationarity conditions and the…
Correlations in complex systems are often obscured by nonstationarity, long-range memory, and heavy-tailed fluctuations, which limit the usefulness of traditional covariance-based analyses. To address these challenges, we construct scale…
In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…
For many environmental processes, recent studies have shown that the dependence strength is decreasing when quantile levels increase. This implies that the popular max-stable models are inadequate to capture the rate of joint tail decay,…
This paper addresses the problem of estimating the tail index of distributions with heavy, Pareto-type tails for dependent data, that is of interest in the areas of finance, insurance, environmental monitoring and teletraffic analysis. A…
We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…