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We explain the connection between the Gumbel limit for diffusion exit times and the theory of extreme values.

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-09 Yuri Bakhtin

We analyze the distribution that extremizes a linear combination of the Boltzmann--Gibbs entropy and the nonadditive $q$-entropy. We show that this distribution can be expressed in terms of a Lambert function. Both the entropic functional…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-05-03 Gabriele Sicuro , Debarshee Bagchi , Constantino Tsallis

We derive the Kullback-Leibler divergence for the normal-gamma distribution and show that it is identical to the Bayesian complexity penalty for the univariate general linear model with conjugate priors. Based on this finding, we provide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-07 Joram Soch , Carsten Allefeld

We consider the extreme value statistics of $N$ independent and identically distributed random variables, which is a classic problem in probability theory. When $N\to\infty$, fluctuations around the maximum of the variables are described by…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-07-14 Lior Zarfaty , Eli Barkai , David A. Kessler

In the framework of Cramer's probabilistic model of primes, we explore the exact and asymptotic distributions of maximal prime gaps. We show that the Gumbel extreme value distribution exp(-exp(-x)) is the limit law for maximal gaps between…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-30 Alexei Kourbatov

Formalising the confrontation of opinions (models) to observations (data) is the task of Inferential Statistics. Information Theory provides us with a basic functional, the relative entropy (or Kullback-Leibler divergence), an asymmetrical…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-03-13 François Bavaud

Testing whether two multivariate samples exhibit the same extremal behavior is an important problem in various fields including environmental and climate sciences. While several ad-hoc approaches exist in the literature, they often lack…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Sebastian Engelke , Philippe Naveau , Chen Zhou

In this paper, we introduce a bivariate exponentaited generalized Weibull-Gompertz distribution. The model introduced here is of Marshall-Olkin type. Several properties are studied such as bivariate probability density function and it is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-19 M. A. EL-Damcese , Abdelfattah Mustafa , M. S. Eliwa

We consider the Gumbel or extreme value statistics describing the distribution function p_G(x_max) of the maximum values of a random field x within patches of fixed size. We present, for smooth Gaussian random fields in two and three…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 S. Colombi , O. Davis , J. Devriendt , S. Prunet , J. Silk

Inferring and comparing complex, multivariable probability density functions is fundamental to problems in several fields, including probabilistic learning, network theory, and data analysis. Classification and prediction are the two faces…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-03-30 David J. Galas , T. Gregory Dewey , James Kunert-Graf , Nikita A. Sakhanenko

In this note, we establish the convergence in distribution of the maxima of i.i.d. random variables to the Gumbel distribution with the associated normalizing sequences for several examples that are related to the normal distribution.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-29 Markus Bibinger

This paper introduces studies on exponentaited generalized Weibull Gompertz distribution EGWGD which generalizes a lot of distributions. Several properties of the EGWGD such as reversed (hazard) function, moments, maximum likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-14 M. A. EL-Damcese , Abdelfattah Mustafa , M. S. Eliwa

We study concentration inequalities for the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between the empirical distribution and the true distribution. Applying a recursion technique, we improve over the method of types bound uniformly in all regimes…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-10-22 Jay Mardia , Jiantao Jiao , Ervin Tánczos , Robert D. Nowak , Tsachy Weissman

Extreme value theory is part and parcel of any study of order statistics in one dimension. Our aim here is to consider such large sample theory for the maximum distance to the origin, and the related maximum "interpoint distance," in…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-30 Sreenivasa Rao Jammalamadaka , Svante Janson

In this paper, we propose some estimators for the parameters of a statistical model based on Kullback-Leibler divergence of the survival function in continuous setting. We prove that the proposed estimators are subclass of "generalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-01 Yaser Mehrali , Majid Asadi

We study distributional robustness in the context of Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We provide a data-driven method for estimating extreme quantiles in a manner that is robust against incorrect model assumptions underlying the application of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Jose Blanchet , Fei He , Karthyek R. A. Murthy

We provide optimal lower and upper bounds for the augmented Kullback-Leibler divergence in terms of the augmented total variation distance between two probability measures defined on two Euclidean spaces having different dimensions. We call…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-03 Michele Caprio

Extreme value distributions are routinely employed to assess risks connected to extreme events in a large number of applications. They typically are two- or three- parameter distributions: the inference can be unstable, which is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-19 Nathan Huet , Ilaria Prosdocimi

We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions if the model is misspecified. Given a prior distribution and a random sample from a distribution $P_0$, which may not be in the support of the prior, we show that the posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 B. J. K. Kleijn , A. W. van der Vaart

We show that generalised extreme value statistics -the statistics of the k-th largest value among a large set of random variables- can be mapped onto a problem of random sums. This allows us to identify classes of non-identical and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Eric Bertin , Maxime Clusel