Related papers: Gaussian Process Volatility Model
We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…
The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…
Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…
A broad class of stochastic volatility models are defined by systems of stochastic differential equations. While these models have seen widespread success in domains such as finance and statistical climatology, they typically lack an…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…
In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…
We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…
A new type of nonstationary Gaussian process model is developed for approximating computationally expensive functions. The new model is a composite of two Gaussian processes, where the first one captures the smooth global trend and the…
This paper proposes a hybrid Gaussian process (GP) approach to robust economic model predictive control under unknown future disturbances in order to reduce the conservatism of the controller. The proposed hybrid GP is a combination of two…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs,…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) can be used as flexible, non-parametric function priors. Inspired by the growing body of work on Normalizing Flows, we enlarge this class of priors through a parametric invertible transformation that can be made…
Differential equations are important mechanistic models that are integral to many scientific and engineering applications. With the abundance of available data there has been a growing interest in data-driven physics-informed models.…
Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…
Multi-task learning requires accurate identification of the correlations between tasks. In real-world time-series, tasks are rarely perfectly temporally aligned; traditional multi-task models do not account for this and subsequent errors in…
Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a flexible non-parametric approach to approximate complex models. In many cases, these models correspond to processes with bounded physical properties. Standard GP regression typically results in a proxy…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
A large collection of time series poses significant challenges for classical and neural forecasting approaches. Classical time series models fail to fit data well and to scale to large problems, but succeed at providing uncertainty…
In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional…
In this paper we introduce a novel online time series forecasting model we refer to as the pM-GP filter. We show that our model is equivalent to Gaussian process regression, with the advantage that both online forecasting and online…
Some scenarios require the computation of a predictive distribution of a new value evaluated on an objective function conditioned on previous observations. We are interested on using a model that makes valid assumptions on the objective…