Related papers: Statistical early-warning indicators based on Auto…
Dynamic linear regression models forecast the values of a time series based on a linear combination of a set of exogenous time series while incorporating a time series process for the error term. This error process is often assumed to…
Forecasting time series data is an important subject in economics, business, and finance. Traditionally, there are several techniques to effectively forecast the next lag of time series data such as univariate Autoregressive (AR),…
The use of moving averages is pervasive in macroeconomic monitoring, particularly for tracking noisy series such as inflation. The choice of the look-back window is crucial. Too long of a moving average is not timely enough when faced with…
We study the problem of detecting an abrupt change to the signal covariance matrix. In particular, the covariance changes from a "white" identity matrix to an unknown spiked or low-rank matrix. Two sequential change-point detection…
In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…
In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
A novel procedure for the online identification of a class of discrete-time switched linear systems, which simultaneously estimates the parameters and switching manifolds of the systems, is proposed in this paper. Firstly, to estimate the…
In this work we introduce the class of beta autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models for continuous random variables taking values in the continuous unit interval $(0,1)$. The proposed model accommodates a set of…
In this paper, we derive (local) orthogonality graphs for the popular continuous-time state space models, including in particular multivariate continuous-time ARMA (MCARMA) processes. In these (local) orthogonality graphs, vertices…
We develop an anomaly-detection method when systematic anomalies, possibly statistically very similar to genuine inputs, are affecting control systems at the input and/or output stages. The method allows anomaly-free inputs (i.e., those…
Modelling physical data with linear discrete time series, namely Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average (ARFIMA), is a technique which achieved attention in recent years. However, these models are used mainly as a statistical…
This study delves into the domain of dynamical systems, specifically the forecasting of dynamical time series defined through an evolution function. Traditional approaches in this area predict the future behavior of dynamical systems by…
We introduce a new method to identify phase boundaries in physical systems. It is based on training a predictive model such as a neural network to infer a physical system's parameters from its state. The deviation of the inferred parameters…
Dynamic inference problems in autoregressive (AR/ARMA/ARIMA), exponential smoothing, and navigation are often formulated and solved using state-space models (SSM), which allow a range of statistical distributions to inform innovations and…
In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval $(a,b)$ following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The…
Bank crisis is challenging to define but can be manifested through bank contagion. This study presents a comprehensive framework grounded in nonlinear time series analysis to identify potential early warning signals (EWS) for impending…
An autoregressive-moving average model in which all roots of the autoregressive polynomial are reciprocals of roots of the moving average polynomial and vice versa is called an all-pass time series model. All-pass models are useful for…
Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…
Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…