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We study an online forecasting setting in which, over $T$ rounds, $N$ strategic experts each report a forecast to a mechanism, the mechanism selects one forecast, and then the outcome is revealed. In any given round, each expert has a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Junpei Komiyama , Nishant A. Mehta , Ali Mortazavi

We address the problem of sequential prediction with expert advice in a non-stationary environment with long-term memory guarantees in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth [4]. We give a linear-time algorithm that improves on the best known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 James Robinson , Mark Herbster

Learning linear predictors with the logistic loss---both in stochastic and online settings---is a fundamental task in machine learning and statistics, with direct connections to classification and boosting. Existing "fast rates" for this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-17 Dylan J. Foster , Satyen Kale , Haipeng Luo , Mehryar Mohri , Karthik Sridharan

We introduce a general framework of stochastic online convex optimization to obtain fast-rate stochastic regret bounds. We prove that algorithms such as online newton steps and a scale-free 10 version of Bernstein online aggregation achieve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-24 Olivier Wintenberger

We consider online learning with linear models, where the algorithm predicts on sequentially revealed instances (feature vectors), and is compared against the best linear function (comparator) in hindsight. Popular algorithms in this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-21 Michał Kempka , Wojciech Kotłowski , Manfred K. Warmuth

We study online prediction for marginally stable, partially observed linear dynamical systems under nonstochastic disturbances. Our objective is to minimize the cumulative squared prediction loss and compete with the best-in-hindsight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Chih-Fan Pai , Yang Zheng

We consider the problem of online linear regression in the stochastic setting. We derive high probability regret bounds for online ridge regression and the forward algorithm. This enables us to compare online regression algorithms more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-03 Reda Ouhamma , Odalric Maillard , Vianney Perchet

Stochastic and adversarial data are two widely studied settings in online learning. But many optimization tasks are neither i.i.d. nor fully adversarial, which makes it of fundamental interest to get a better theoretical understanding of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Sarah Sachs , Hedi Hadiji , Tim van Erven , Cristobal Guzman

We study online adversarial regression with convex losses against a rich class of continuous yet highly irregular prediction rules, modeled by Besov spaces $B\_{pq}^s$ with general parameters $1 \leq p,q \leq \infty$ and smoothness $s >…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Paul Liautaud , Pierre Gaillard , Olivier Wintenberger

In online learning, the data is provided in a sequential order, and the goal of the learner is to make online decisions to minimize overall regrets. This note is concerned with continuous-time models and algorithms for several online…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-20 Lexing Ying

We consider online learning algorithms that guarantee worst-case regret rates in adversarial environments (so they can be deployed safely and will perform robustly), yet adapt optimally to favorable stochastic environments (so they will…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Wouter M. Koolen , Peter Grünwald , Tim van Erven

This paper presents a novel online identification algorithm for nonlinear regression models. The online identification problem is challenging due to the presence of nonlinear structure in the models. Previous works usually ignore the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-21 Guang-Yong Chen , Min Gan , Jing Chen , Long Chen

Motivated by the predictable nature of real-life in data streams, we study online regression when the learner has access to predictions about future examples. In the extreme case, called transductive online learning, the sequence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Vinod Raman , Shenghao Xie , Samson Zhou

In online ranking, a learning algorithm sequentially ranks a set of items and receives feedback on its ranking in the form of relevance scores. Since obtaining relevance scores typically involves human annotation, it is of great interest to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Mingyuan Zhang , Ambuj Tewari

Prediction intervals offer an effective tool for quantifying the uncertainty of loads in distribution systems. The traditional central PIs cannot adapt well to skewed distributions, and their offline training fashion is vulnerable to…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-30 Yufan Zhang , Honglin Wen , Qiuwei Wu , Qian Ai

We study online learning settings in which experts act strategically to maximize their influence on the learning algorithm's predictions by potentially misreporting their beliefs about a sequence of binary events. Our goal is twofold.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Rupert Freeman , David M. Pennock , Chara Podimata , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan

We consider the problem of \textit{online sparse linear approximation}, where one predicts the best sparse approximation of a sequence of measurements in terms of linear combination of columns of a given measurement matrix. Such online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Samrat Mukhopadhyay , Debasmita Mukherjee

We consider the problem of the Zinkevich (2003)-style dynamic regret minimization in online learning with exp-concave losses. We show that whenever improper learning is allowed, a Strongly Adaptive online learner achieves the dynamic regret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-06 Dheeraj Baby , Yu-Xiang Wang

We study online learnability of a wide class of problems, extending the results of (Rakhlin, Sridharan, Tewari, 2010) to general notions of performance measure well beyond external regret. Our framework simultaneously captures such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-03-25 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan , Ambuj Tewari

We consider online learning in episodic loop-free Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the loss function can change arbitrarily between episodes, and the transition function is not known to the learner. We show…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-21 Aviv Rosenberg , Yishay Mansour