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Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…
A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…
A class of estimating functions is introduced for the regression parameter of the Cox proportional hazards model to allow unknown failure statuses on some study subjects. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators…
In this article, we present a novel approach to multivariate probabilistic forecasting. Our approach is based on an extension of single-output quantile regression (QR) to multivariate-targets, called quantile surfaces (QS). QS uses a simple…
Prediction is a key issue in time series analysis. Just as classical mean regression models, classical autoregressive methods, yielding L$^2$ point-predictions, provide rather poor predictive summaries; a much more informative approach is…
This paper develops a two-part finite mixture quantile regression model for semi-continuous longitudinal data. The proposed methodology allows heterogeneity sources that influence the model for the binary response variable, to influence…
The study of survival data often requires taking proper care of the censoring mechanism that prohibits complete observation of the data. Under right censoring, only the first occurring event is observed: either the event of interest, or a…
This work examines risk bounds for nonparametric distributional regression estimators. For convex-constrained distributional regression, general upper bounds are established for the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the…
We consider a Bayesian method for simultaneous quantile regression on a real variable. By monotone transformation, we can make both the response variable and the predictor variable take values in the unit interval. A representation of…
This paper proposes a Vector Autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically…
Bayesian simultaneous estimation of nonparametric quantile curves is a challenging problem, requiring a flexible and robust data model whilst satisfying the monotonicity or noncrossing constraints on the quantiles. This paper presents the…
We develop a novel approach for the construction of quantile processes governing the stochastic dynamics of quantiles in continuous time. Two classes of quantile diffusions are identified: the first, which we largely focus on, features a…
In this article, we propose a new nonparametric data analysis tool, which we call nonparametric modal regression, to investigate the relationship among interested variables based on estimating the mode of the conditional density of a…
In the regression problem, L1 and L2 are the most commonly used loss functions, which produce mean predictions with different biases. However, the predictions are neither robust nor adequate enough since they only capture a few conditional…
P\'{o}lya trees fix partitions and use random probabilities in order to construct random probability measures. With quantile pyramids we instead fix probabilities and use random partitions. For nonparametric Bayesian inference we use a…
To quantify the operational risk capital charge under the current regulatory framework for banking supervision, referred to as Basel II, many banks adopt the Loss Distribution Approach. There are many modeling issues that should be resolved…
The paper offers a novel unified approach to studying the accuracy of parameter estimation by the quasi likelihood method. Important features of the approach are: (1) The underlying model {is not assumed to be parametric}. (2) No conditions…
We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…
Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…
Various indicators and measures of the real life procedures rise up as functionals of the quantile process of a parent random variable Z. However, Z can be observed only through a response in a linear model whose covariates are not under…