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Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data.…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-14 Thomas B. Schön , Andreas Svensson , Lawrence Murray , Fredrik Lindsten

Online variants of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm have recently been proposed to perform parameter inference with large data sets or data streams, in independent latent models and in hidden Markov models. Nevertheless, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-01 Sylvain Le Corff , Gersende Fort

A core problem in statistics and probabilistic machine learning is to compute probability distributions and expectations. This is the fundamental problem of Bayesian statistics and machine learning, which frames all inference as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-06 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

For finite-dimensional problems, stochastic approximation methods have long been used to solve stochastic optimization problems. Their application to infinite-dimensional problems is less understood, particularly for nonconvex objectives.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-01-14 Caroline Geiersbach , Teresa Scarinci

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2014-10-23 Jamie Owen , Darren J. Wilkinson , Colin S. Gillespie

We consider the problem of optimizing the sum of a smooth convex function and a non-smooth convex function using proximal-gradient methods, where an error is present in the calculation of the gradient of the smooth term or in the proximity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-12-02 Mark Schmidt , Nicolas Le Roux , Francis Bach

We propose a novel algorithm for efficiently computing a sparse directed adjacency matrix from a group of time series following a causal graph process. Our solution is scalable for both dense and sparse graphs and automatically selects the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-19 Théophile Griveau-Billion , Ben Calderhead

This paper deals with composite optimization problems having the objective function formed as the sum of two terms, one has Lipschitz continuous gradient along random subspaces and may be nonconvex and the second term is simple and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-10 I. Necoara , F. Chorobura

We consider the problem of learning a conditional Gaussian graphical model in the presence of latent variables. Building on recent advances in this field, we suggest a method that decomposes the parameters of a conditional Markov random…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-07 Benjamin Frot , Luke Jostins , Gil McVean

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-03-19 Richard G. Everitt

We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-10 Alkis Gotovos , Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause , Stefanie Jegelka

Stochastic Gradient (SG) Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) are popular algorithms for Bayesian sampling in the presence of large datasets. However, they come with little theoretical guarantees and assessing their empirical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-16 Lorenzo Mauri , Giacomo Zanella

The tuning of stochastic gradient algorithms (SGAs) for optimization and sampling is often based on heuristics and trial-and-error rather than generalizable theory. We address this theory--practice gap by characterizing the large-sample…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-21 Jeffrey Negrea , Jun Yang , Haoyue Feng , Daniel M. Roy , Jonathan H. Huggins

We present a new Subset Simulation approach using Hamiltonian neural network-based Monte Carlo sampling for reliability analysis. The proposed strategy combines the superior sampling of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-11 Denny Thaler , Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Franz Bamer , Bernd Markert , Michael D. Shields

Markov chain Monte Carlo is an inherently serial algorithm. Although likelihood calculations for individual steps can sometimes be parallelized, the serial evolution of the process is widely viewed as incompatible with parallelization,…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-31 Douglas N. VanDerwerken , Scott C. Schmidler

Inference for Dirichlet process hierarchical models is typically performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, which can be roughly categorised into marginal and conditional methods. The former integrate out analytically the…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-10-24 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth Roberts

Several convex formulation methods have been proposed previously for statistical estimation with structured sparsity as the prior. These methods often require a carefully tuned regularization parameter, often a cumbersome or heuristic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-23 Sohail Bahmani , Petros T. Boufounos , Bhiksha Raj

Understanding stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants is essential for machine learning. However, most of the preceding analyses are conducted under amenable conditions such as unbiased gradient estimator and bounded objective…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Tianyou Li , Fan Chen , Huajie Chen , Zaiwen Wen

We introduce and analyze a parallel sequential Monte Carlo methodology for the numerical solution of optimization problems that involve the minimization of a cost function that consists of the sum of many individual components. The proposed…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-04 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Dan Crisan , Joaquín Míguez

Gaussian process (GP) models form a core part of probabilistic machine learning. Considerable research effort has been made into attacking three issues with GP models: how to compute efficiently when the number of data is large; how to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-15 James Hensman , Alexander G. de G. Matthews , Maurizio Filippone , Zoubin Ghahramani
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