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This paper is concerned with testing and dating structural breaks in the dependence structure of multivariate time series. We consider a cumulative sum (CUSUM) type test for constant copula-based dependence measures, such as Spearman's rank…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-12 Florian Stark , Sven Otto

We present a framework for selecting and developing measures of dependence when the goal is the quantification of a relationship between two variables, not simply the establishment of its existence. Much of the literature on dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-22 Matthew Reimherr , Dan L. Nicolae

We describe a family of conservative statistical tests for independence of two autocorrelated time series. The series may take values in any sets, and one of them must be stationary. A user-specified function quantifying the association of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 Kenneth D. Harris

To detect changes in the mean of a time series, one may use previsible detection procedures based on nonparametric kernel prediction smoothers which cover various classic detection statistics as special cases. Bandwidth selection,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-20 Ansgar Steland

In this paper, we introduce an asymptotic test procedure to assess the stability of volatilities and cross-volatilites of linear and nonlinear multivariate time series models. The test is very flexible as it can be applied, for example, to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Alexander Aue , Siegfried Hörmann , Lajos Horváth , Matthew Reimherr

We consider an approach for testing the hypothesis that two realizations of the random variables in the form of histograms are taken from the same statistical population (i.e. two histograms are drawn from the same distribution). The…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-11-26 S. Bityukov , N. Krasnikov , A. Nikitenko , V. Smirnova

We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-10 Milan Žukovič

In this paper we derive control charts for the variance of a Gaussian process using the likelihood ratio approach, the generalized likelihood ratio approach, the sequential probability ratio method and a generalized sequential probability…

Applications · Statistics 2012-09-24 Taras Lazariv , Wolfgang Schmid , Svitlana Zabolotska

The performance of a number of different measures of nonlinearity in a time series is compared numerically. Their power to distinguish noisy chaotic data from linear stochastic surrogates is determined by Monte Carlo simulation for a number…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Thomas Schreiber , Andreas Schmitz

We study the problems of sequential nonparametric two-sample and independence testing. Sequential tests process data online and allow using observed data to decide whether to stop and reject the null hypothesis or to collect more data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-21 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Aaditya Ramdas

We derive tests of stationarity for univariate time series by combining change-point tests sensitive to changes in the contemporary distribution with tests sensitive to changes in the serial dependence. The proposed approach relies on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-21 Axel Bücher , Jean-David Fermanian , Ivan Kojadinovic

Multivariate time series data that capture the temporal evolution of interconnected systems are ubiquitous in diverse areas. Understanding the complex relationships and potential dependencies among co-observed variables is crucial for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Zhaolu Liu , Robert L. Peach , Felix Laumann , Sara Vallejo Mengod , Mauricio Barahona

Finding interdependency relations between (possibly multivariate) time series provides valuable knowledge about the processes that generate the signals. Information theory sets a natural framework for non-parametric measures of several…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-02-09 German Gomez-Herrero , Wei Wu , Kalle Rutanen , Miguel C. Soriano , Gordon Pipa , Raul Vicente

Estimating the structures at high or low quantiles has become an important subject and attracted increasing attention across numerous fields. However, due to data sparsity at tails, it usually is a challenging task to obtain reliable…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-08 Yingying Zhang , Yuefeng Si , Guodong Li , Chil-Ling Tsai

Recent studies demonstrate that trends in indicators extracted from measured time series can indicate approaching to an impending transition. Kendall's {\tau} coefficient is often used to study the trend of statistics related to the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-10-07 Shiyang Chen , Amin Ghadami , Bogdan I. Epureanu

This paper examines asymmetric and time-varying dependency structures between financial returns, using a novel approach consisting of a combination of regime-switching models and the local Gaussian correlation (LGC). We propose an LGC-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-28 Kristian Gundersen , Timothée Bacri , Jan Bulla , Sondre Hølleland , Bård Støve

All too often measuring statistical dependencies between financial time series is reduced to a linear correlation coefficient. However this may not capture all facets of reality. We study empirical dependencies of daily stock returns by…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-01 Marcel Wollschläger , Rudi Schäfer

A time-domain test for the assumption of second order stationarity of a functional time series is proposed. The test is based on combining individual cumulative sum tests which are designed to be sensitive to changes in the mean, variance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Axel Bücher , Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

This study aims to evaluate the performance of power in the likelihood ratio test for changepoint detection by bootstrap sampling, and proposes a hypothesis test based on bootstrapped confidence interval lengths. Assuming i.i.d normally…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Ryan Chen , Javier Cabrera

Quantile Regression (QR) provides a way to approximate a single conditional quantile. To have a more informative description of the conditional distribution, QR can be merged with deep learning techniques to simultaneously estimate multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-01 Axel Brando , Joan Gimeno , Jose A. Rodríguez-Serrano , Jordi Vitrià