Related papers: Option Pricing, Historical Volatility and Tail Ris…
We propose a probabilistic framework for pricing derivatives, which acknowledges that information and beliefs are subjective. Market prices can be translated into implied probabilities. In particular, futures imply returns for these implied…
We review the nature of some well-known phenomena such as volatility smiles, convexity adjustments and parallel derivative markets. We propose that the market is incomplete and postulate the existence of intrinsic risks in every contingent…
This papers addresses the stock option pricing problem in a continuous time market model where there are two stochastic tradable assets, and one of them is selected as a num\'eraire. It is shown that the presence of arbitrarily small…
This paper investigates how two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced into the cross-section of asset returns across various investment horizons. To identify such risks, we propose a…
We obtain option pricing formulas for stock price models in which the drift and volatility terms are functionals of a continuous history of the stock prices. That is, the stock dynamics follows a nonlinear stochastic functional differential…
We reconsider the problem of option pricing using historical probability distributions. We first discuss how the risk-minimisation scheme proposed recently is an adequate starting point under the realistic assumption that price increments…
We apply path integration techniques to obtain option pricing with stochastic volatility using a generalized Black-Scholes equation known as the Merton and Garman equation. We numerically simulate the option prices using the technique of…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary…
The dynamics of market prices is described as the evolution of opinions in the trading community regarding future market behavior. The price then is a function of the voting process of the market players in favor to raise or reduce the…
In the regime switching extension of Black-Scholes-Merton model of asset price dynamics, one assumes that the volatility coefficient evolves as a hidden pure jump process. Under the assumption of Markov regime switching, we have considered…
In the first part of this thesis, we focus on American options in the Heston model. We first give an analytical characterization of the value function of an American option as the unique solution of the associated (degenerate) parabolic…
In the current literature, the analytical tractability of discrete time option pricing models is guaranteed only for rather specific types of models and pricing kernels. We propose a very general and fully analytical option pricing…
We analyse the behaviour of the implied volatility smile for options close to expiry in the exponential L\'evy class of asset price models with jumps. We introduce a new renormalisation of the strike variable with the property that the…
Financial time series exhibit a number of interesting properties that are difficult to explain with simple models. These properties include fat-tails in the distribution of price fluctuations (or returns) that are slowly removed at longer…
In this note, we develop stock option price approximations for a model which takes both the risk o default and the stochastic volatility into account. We also let the intensity of defaults be influenced by the volatility. We show that it…
In this paper, we consider the problem of equal risk pricing and hedging in which the fair price of an option is the price that exposes both sides of the contract to the same level of risk. Focusing for the first time on the context where…
We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…
Based on empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is proposed with volatility driven by fractional noise. The model is used to obtain a risk-neutrality option pricing formula and an option pricing equation.
We study the pricing of European-style options written on forward contracts within function-valued infinite-dimensional affine stochastic volatility models. The dynamics of the underlying forward price curves are modeled within the…
The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be…