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This article studies optional and predictable projections of integrands and convex-valued stochastic processes. The existence and uniqueness are shown under general conditions that are analogous to those for conditional expectations of…
The concept of conditional expectation is important in applications of probability and statistics in many areas such as reliability engineering, economy, finance, and actuarial sciences due to its property of being the best predictor of a…
We discuss conditionalisation for Accept-Desirability models in an abstract decision-making framework, where uncertain rewards live in a general linear space, and events are special projection operators on that linear space. This abstract…
An extension of the conditional expectations (those under a given subalgebra of events and not the simple ones under a single event) from the classical to the quantum case is presented. In the classical case, the conditional expectations…
We tackle the problem of conditioning probabilistic programs on distributions of observable variables. Probabilistic programs are usually conditioned on samples from the joint data distribution, which we refer to as deterministic…
We investigate a possible definition of expectation and conditional expectation for random variables with values in a local field such as the $p$-adic numbers. We define the expectation by analogy with the observation that for real-valued…
Given a stochastic structure with a filtration $\mathbb{F}$, the class of all random times whose conditional distribution functions are differentiable with respect to some $\mathbb{F}$ adapted non decreasing processes is considered. The…
Computing expected predictions of discriminative models is a fundamental task in machine learning that appears in many interesting applications such as fairness, handling missing values, and data analysis. Unfortunately, computing…
We consider three different types of global uncertainty models for discrete-time stochastic processes: measure-theoretic upper expectations, game-theoretic upper expectations and axiomatic upper expectations. The last two are known to be…
In this paper we present new, short and elementary proofs of the famous projection and section theorems that are used in Stochastic Calculus.
The main object of investigation in this paper is a very general regression model in optional setting - when an observed process is an optional semimartingale depending on an unknown parameter. It is well-known that statistical data may…
In this paper we study a family of nonlinear (conditional) expectations that can be understood as a stochastic process with uncertain parameters. We develop a general framework which can be seen as a version of the martingale problem method…
In this paper, we define a dynamically consistent conditional G-expectation in space $\mathbb{L}^{p}$, and give the related stochastic calculus of It\^o's type, especially get It\^o's formula for a general $C^{1,2}$-function.
We develop a stochastic calculus that makes it easy to capture a variety of predictable transformations of semimartingales such as changes of variables, stochastic integrals, and their compositions. The framework offers a unified treatment…
Prediction is a complex notion, and different predictors (such as people, computer programs, and probabilistic theories) can pursue very different goals. In this paper I will review some popular kinds of prediction and argue that the theory…
Motivated by several classic decision-theoretic paradoxes, and by analogies with the paradoxes which in physics motivated the development of quantum mechanics, we introduce a projective generalization of expected utility along the lines of…
The need to condition distributional properties such as expectation, variance, and entropy arises in algorithmic fairness, model simplification, robustness and many other areas. At face value however, distributional properties are not…
We study a subclass of POMDPs, called Deterministic POMDPs, that is characterized by deterministic actions and observations. These models do not provide the same generality of POMDPs yet they capture a number of interesting and challenging…
For a series of Markov processes we prove stochastic duality relations with duality functions given by orthogonal polynomials. This means that expectations with respect to the original process (which evolves the variable of the orthogonal…
It is useful to have a criterion for when the predictions of an operational theory should be considered classically explainable. Here we take the criterion to be that the theory admits of a generalized-noncontextual ontological model.…