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Whether or not stocks are predictable has been a topic of concern for decades.The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) says that it is difficult for investors to make extra profits by predicting stock prices, but this may not be true,…
We present a time-dependent Langevin description of dynamics of stock prices. Based on a simple sliding-window algorithm, the fluctuation of stock prices is discussed in the view of a time-dependent linear restoring force which is the…
Earnings calls influence stock prices and are traditionally analyzed using sentiment and linguistic traces. Our research introduces a "Topic-Switching Index," a novel metric quantified through the transformer model FinBERT, to measure…
Modern approaches to stock pricing in quantitative finance are typically founded on the 'Black-Scholes model' and the underlying 'random walk hypothesis'. Empirical data indicate that this hypothesis works well in stable situations but, in…
When prices reflect all available information, they oscillate around an equilibrium level. This oscillation is the result of the temporary market impact caused by waves of buyers and sellers. This price behavior can be approximated through…
In financial markets, not only prices and returns can be considered as random variables, but also the waiting time between two transactions varies randomly. In the following, we analyse the statistical properties of General Electric stock…
Complex systems comprise a large number of interacting elements, whose dynamics is not always a priori known. In these cases -- in order to uncover their key features -- we have to turn to empirical methods, one of which was recently…
We study the pricing and hedging of derivative securities with uncertainty about the volatility of the underlying asset. Rather than taking all models from a prespecified class equally seriously, we penalise less plausible ones based on…
It is usually assumed that stock prices reflect a balance between large numbers of small individual sellers and buyers. However, over the past fifty years mutual funds and other institutional shareholders have assumed an ever increasing…
In modern financial markets, news plays a critical role in shaping investor sentiment and influencing stock price movements. However, most existing studies aggregate daily news sentiment into a single score, potentially overlooking…
We present a perturbation theory of the market impact based on an extension of the framework proposed by [Loeper, 2018] -- originally based on [Liu and Yong, 2005] -- in which we consider only local linear market impact. We study the…
We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this…
Prediction markets mobilize financial incentives to forecast binary event outcomes through the aggregation of dispersed beliefs and heterogeneous information. Their growing popularity and demonstrated predictive accuracy in political…
We consider the problem of option hedging in a market with proportional transaction costs. Since super-replication is very costly in such markets, we replace perfect hedging with an expected loss constraint. Asymptotic analysis for small…
Automated market makers (AMMs) are smart contracts that automatically trade electronic assets according to a mathematical formula. This paper investigates how an AMM's formula affects the interests of liquidity providers, who endow the AMM…
We investigate upper and lower hedging prices of multivariate contingent claims from the viewpoint of game-theoretic probability and submodularity. By considering a game between "Market" and "Investor" in discrete time, the pricing problem…
This paper tries to address the problem of stock market prediction leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) strategies. The stock market prediction can be modeled based on two principal analyses called technical and fundamental. In the…
The problem of hedging and pricing sequences of contingent claims in large financial markets is studied. Connection between asymptotic arbitrage and behavior of the $\alpha$~-~quantile price is shown. The large Black-Scholes model is…
We present a dynamical theory of asset price bubbles that exhibits the appearance of bubbles and their subsequent crashes. We show that when speculative trends dominate over fundamental beliefs, bubbles form, leading to the growth of asset…
In this paper, we consider the problem of hedging Asian options in financial markets with transaction costs. For this, we use the asymptotic hedging approach. The main task of asymptotic hedging in financial markets with transaction costs…