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We revisit classical asymptotics when testing for a structural break in linear regression models by obtaining the limit theory of residual-based and Wald-type processes. First, we establish the Brownian bridge limiting distribution of these…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-16 Christis Katsouris

Using a new class of exactly solvable models based on the pairing interaction, we show that it is possible to construct integrable Hamiltonians with a Wigner distribution of nearest neighbor level spacings. However, these Hamiltonians…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 A. Relano , J. Dukelsky , J. M. G. Gomez , J. Retamosa

Moderate calibration, the expected event probability among observations with predicted probability z being equal to z, is a desired property of risk prediction models. Current graphical and numerical techniques for evaluating moderate…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , John Petkau

Analytical work probability distributions for open classical systems are scarce; they can only be calculated in a few examples. In this work, I present a new method to derive such quantities for weakly driven processes in the overdamped…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-04-09 Pierre Nazé

In this paper, we construct a family of probability measures, by penalizations of a Walsh Brownian motion with a weight dependent on its value and its local time at a time t. We prove that this family converges to a probability measure as t…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-12-24 Joseph Najnudel

In this paper, we consider the multivariate Bernoulli distribution as a model to estimate the structure of graphs with binary nodes. This distribution is discussed in the framework of the exponential family, and its statistical properties…

Applications · Statistics 2013-11-13 Bin Dai , Shilin Ding , Grace Wahba

In device-independent quantum information, correlations between local measurement outcomes observed by spatially separated parties in a Bell test play a fundamental role. Even though it is long-known that the set of correlations allowed in…

This paper studies the asymptotics of resampling without replacement in the proportional regime where dimension $p$ and sample size $n$ are of the same order. For a given dataset $(X,y)\in \mathbb{R}^{n\times p}\times \mathbb{R}^n$ and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Pierre C. Bellec , Takuya Koriyama

To take sample biases and skewness in the observations into account, practitioners frequently weight their observations according to some marginal distribution. The present paper demonstrates that such weighting can indeed improve the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-05 Tobias Niebuhr , Mathias Trabs

We derive asymptotic expansions up to order $n^{-1/2}$ for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the class of dispersion models, under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-23 Artur J. Lemonte , Silvia L. P. Ferrari

Likelihood inference for max-stable random fields is in general impossible because their finite-dimensional probability density functions are unknown or cannot be computed efficiently. The weighted composite likelihood approach that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Nicolas Chenavier , Christian Y. Robert

It is well known that it is impossible to construct useful confidence intervals (CIs) about the mean or median of a response $Y$ conditional on features $X = x$ without making strong assumptions about the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Jayoon Jang , Emmanuel Candès

Exact and asymptotic formulas relating to dynamical correlations for overdamped Brownian motion are obtained. These formulas include a generalization of the $f$-sum rule from the theory of quantum fluids, a formula relating the static…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 P. J. Forrester , B. Jancovici

The paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the performance of likelihood weighting (LW) on a subset of nodes in Bayesian networks. The proposed scheme requires fewer samples to converge due to reduction in sampling variance. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Bozhena Bidyuk , Rina Dechter

This paper develops a novel nonparametric significance test based on a tailored nonparametric-type projected weighting function that exhibits appealing theoretical and numerical properties. We derive the asymptotic properties of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-18 Xiaojun Song , Jichao Yuan

Within the framework of weighted integrable Hamiltonian systems, we study the long-time behavior of the associated statistical ensembles. We construct an action-dependent angular conjugacy that rectifies the nonuniform angular flow into a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-09-29 Xinyu Liu , Yong Li

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the number of crossings by a one-dimensional diffusion of a threshold where the process exhibits stickiness. We distinguish three types of crossings and show that to each type corresponds a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-09 Alexis Anagnostakis , Sara Mazzonetto

Rigorous guarantees about the performance of predictive algorithms are necessary in order to ensure their responsible use. Previous work has largely focused on bounding the expected loss of a predictor, but this is not sufficient in many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Jake C. Snell , Thomas P. Zollo , Zhun Deng , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

Assuming the Riemann hypothesis (RH) and the linear independence conjecture (LI), we show that the weighted count of primes in multiple short intervals follows a multivariate Gaussian distribution with weak negative correlations. As an…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Sun-Kai Leung

We consider weighted random balls in $\real^d$ distributed according to a random Poisson measure with heavy-tailed intensity and study the asymptotic behaviour of the total weight of some configurations in $\real^d$. This procedure amounts…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-08-26 Jean-Christophe Breton , Clément Dombry
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