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Signal processing makes extensive use of point estimators and accompanying error bounds. These work well up until the likelihood function has two or more high peaks. When it is important for an estimator to remain reliable, it becomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Ning Xu , Christopher M. Foster , Jonathan H. Manton

This paper explores an approach to Bayesian sample size determination in clinical trials. The approach falls into the category of what is often called "proper Bayesian", in that it does not mix frequentist concepts with Bayesian ones. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-04-23 Robb J. Muirhead , Adina I. Soaita

A density estimation method in a Bayesian nonparametric framework is presented when recorded data are not coming directly from the distribution of interest, but from a length biased version. From a Bayesian perspective, efforts to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-23 Spyridon J. Hatjispyros , Theodoros Nicoleris , Stephen G. Walker

Consider a statistical problem where a set of parameters are of interest to a researcher. Then multiple confidence intervals can be constructed to infer the set of parameters simultaneously. The constructed multiple confidence intervals are…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-10 Taeho Kim , Edsel A. Pena

Interval calculus is a relatively new branch of mathematics. Initially understood as a set of tools to assess the quality of numerical calculations (rigorous control of rounding errors), it became a discipline in its own rights today.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Marek W. Gutowski

We consider the nonparametric multivariate isotonic regression problem, where the regression function is assumed to be nondecreasing with respect to each predictor. Our goal is to construct a Bayesian credible interval for the function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Kang Wang , Subhashis Ghosal

Bayesian and frequentist inference are two fundamental paradigms in statistical estimation. Bayesian methods treat hypotheses as random variables, incorporating priors and updating beliefs via Bayes' theorem, whereas frequentist methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Sarthak Mittal , Yoshua Bengio , Nikolay Malkin , Guillaume Lajoie

This paper proposes a new estimation procedure for the ambiguity function of a non-stationary time series. The stochastic properties of the empirical ambiguity function calculated from a single sample in time are derived. Different…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-08-21 Heidi Hindberg , Sofia C. Olhede

A reasonable confidence interval should have a confidence coefficient no less than the given nominal level and a small expected length to reliably and accurately estimate the parameter of interest, and the bootstrap interval is considered…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-15 Weizhen Wang , Chongxiu Yu , Zhongzhan Zhang

Results of numerical procedure of constructing confidence intervals for parameter of the Poisson distribution of signal events in the presence of background events with known value of parameter of Poisson distribution are presented. It is…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 S. I. Bityukov , N. V. Krasnikov , V. A. Taperechkina

Due to their great flexibility, nonparametric Bayes methods have proven to be a valuable tool for discovering complicated patterns in data. The term "nonparametric Bayes" suggests that these methods inherit model-free operating…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-04-15 Peter D. Hoff

We distinguish two questions (i) how much information does the prior contain? and (ii) what is the effect of the prior? Several measures have been proposed for quantifying effective prior sample size, for example Clarke [1996] and Morita et…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-30 David E Jones , Robert N Trangucci , Yang Chen

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

In many statistical problems, several estimators are usually available for interval estimation of a parameter of interest, and hence, the selection of an appropriate estimator is important. The criterion for a good estimator is to have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-10 Richard Minkah , Tertius de Wet

Don Fraser has given an interesting account of the agreements and disagreements between Bayesian posterior probabilities and confidence levels. In this comment I discuss some cases where the lack of such agreement is extreme. I then discuss…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-06 Larry Wasserman

In this paper we propose a Bayesian answer to testing problems when the hypotheses are not well separated. The idea of the method is to study the posterior distribution of a discrepancy measure between the parameter and the model we want to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-28 Jean-Bernard Salomond

Over the last few decades, various methods have been proposed for estimating prediction intervals in regression settings, including Bayesian methods, ensemble methods, direct interval estimation methods and conformal prediction methods. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-02 Nicolas Dewolf , Bernard De Baets , Willem Waegeman

The construction of the Bayesian credible (confidence) interval for a Poisson observable including both the signal and background with and without systematic uncertainties is presented. Introducing the conditional probability satisfying the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-13 Yong-Sheng Zhu

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

Bayesian and frequentist criteria fundamentally differ, but often posterior and sampling distributions agree asymptotically (e.g., Gaussian with same covariance). For the corresponding single-draw experiment, we characterize the frequentist…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-04 David M. Kaplan , Longhao Zhuo