Related papers: A paradox from randomization-based causal inferenc…

Randomization tests allow simple and unambiguous tests of null hypotheses, by comparing observed data to a null ensemble in which experimentally-controlled variables are randomly resampled. In behavioral and neuroscience experiments,…

When we compare the influences of two causes on an outcome, if the conclusion from every group is against that from the conflation, we think there is Simpson's Paradox. The Existing Causal Inference Theory (ECIT) can make the overall…

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce first a new family of empirical test statistics for testing a simple null hypothesis when the vector of parameters of interest are defined through a specific set of unbiased estimating…

Causal inference on multiple non-independent outcomes raises serious challenges, because multivariate techniques that properly account for the outcome's dependence structure need to be considered. We focus on the case of binary outcomes…

Design-based causal inference, also known as randomization-based or finite-population causal inference, is one of the most widely used causal inference frameworks, largely due to the merit that its validity can be guaranteed by study design…

Network interference amounts to the treatment status of one unit affecting the potential outcome of other units in the population. Testing for spillover effects in this setting makes the null hypothesis non-sharp. An interesting approach to…

We propose a new method to estimate causal effects from nonexperimental data. Each pair of sample units is first associated with a stochastic 'treatment' - differences in factors between units - and an effect - a resultant outcome…

With multiple outcomes in empirical research, a common strategy is to define a composite outcome as a weighted average of the original outcomes. However, the choices of weights are often subjective and can be controversial. We propose an…

In finite population causal inference exact randomization tests can be constructed for sharp null hypotheses, i.e. hypotheses which fully impute the missing potential outcomes. Oftentimes inference is instead desired for the weak null that…

Causal inference is the goal of randomized trials and many observational studies. The first step in a formal causal inference framework is to define the causal estimand, and in both types of study this can be intuitively defined as the…

In many common situations, a Bayesian credible interval will be, given the same data, very similar to a frequentist confidence interval, and researchers will interpret these intervals in a similar fashion. However, no predictable similarity…

Applied researchers are increasingly interested in whether and how treatment effects vary in randomized evaluations, especially variation not explained by observed covariates. We propose a model-free approach for testing for the presence of…

We propose a universal classifier for binary Neyman-Pearson classification where null distribution is known while only a training sequence is available for the alternative distribution. The proposed classifier interpolates between…

Neyman (1923/1990) introduced the randomization model, which contains the notation of potential outcomes to define causal effects and a framework for large-sample inference based on the design of the experiment. However, the existing theory…

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model…

In an observational study, it is common to leverage known null effect to detect bias. One such strategy is to set aside a placebo sample -- a subset of data immune from the hypothesized cause-and-effect relationship. Existence of an effect…

Reasoning about fairness through correlation-based notions is rife with pitfalls. The 1973 University of California, Berkeley graduate school admissions case from Bickel et. al. (1975) is a classic example of one such pitfall, namely…

Randomization inference is a powerful tool in early phase vaccine trials when estimating the causal effect of a regimen against a placebo or another regimen. Randomization-based inference often focuses on testing either Fisher's sharp null…

Fisher's randomization test (FRT) delivers exact $p$-values under the strong null hypothesis of no treatment effect on any units whatsoever and allows for flexible covariate adjustment to improve the power. Of interest is whether the…

Hardy's paradox was originally presented as a demonstration, without inequalities, of the incompatibility between quantum mechanics and the hypothesis of local causality. Equipped with newly developed tools that allow for a quantitative…