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We consider discrete nonparametric priors which induce Gibbs-type exchangeable random partitions and investigate their posterior behavior in detail. In particular, we deduce conditional distributions and the corresponding Bayesian…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-08-22 Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster , Stephen G. Walker

The problem of nonparametric estimation of the conditional density of a response, given a vector of explanatory variables, is classical and of prominent importance in many prediction problems since the conditional density provides a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-21 Catia Scricciolo

In many real problems, dependence structures more general than exchangeability are required. For instance, in some settings partial exchangeability is a more reasonable assumption. For this reason, vectors of dependent Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-20 Alan Riva Palacio , Fabrizio Leisen

This work studies the variation in Kullback-Leibler divergence between random draws from some popular nonparametric processes and their baseline measure. In particular we focus on the Dirichlet process, the P\'olya tree and the frequentist…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-25 James Watson , Luis Nieto-Barajas , Chris Holmes

We study prior distributions for Poisson parameter estimation under $L^1$ loss. Specifically, we construct a new family of prior distributions whose optimal Bayesian estimators (the conditional medians) can be any prescribed increasing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-28 Leighton P. Barnes , Alex Dytso , H. Vincent Poor

In this paper we provide general conditions to check on the model and the prior to derive posterior concentration rates for data-dependent priors (or empirical Bayes approaches). We aim at providing conditions that are close to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-18 Sophie Donnet , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau , Catia Scricciolo

We investigate the convergence properties of popular data-augmentation samplers for Bayesian probit regression. Leveraging recent results on Gibbs samplers for log-concave targets, we provide simple and explicit non-asymptotic bounds on the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-05-21 Filippo Ascolani , Giacomo Zanella

Bayesian supervised predictive classifiers, hypothesis testing, and parametric estimation under Partition Exchangeability are implemented. The two classifiers presented are the marginal classifier (that assumes test data is i.i.d.) next to…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-06 Ville Kinnula , Jing Tang , Ali Amiryousefi

We develop nonparametric Bayesian modelling approaches for Poisson processes, using weighted combinations of structured beta densities to represent the point process intensity function. For a regular spatial domain, such as the unit square,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Chunyi Zhao , Athanasios Kottas

We study frequentist risk properties of predictive density estimators for mean mixtures of multivariate normal distributions, involving an unknown location parameter $\theta \in \mathbb{R}^d$, and which include multivariate skew normal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-02 Pankaj Bhagwat , Eric Marchand

In this paper, we propose a discrete circular distribution obtained by extending the wrapped Poisson distribution. This new distribution, the Invariant Wrapped Poisson (IWP), enjoys numerous advantages: simple tractable density,…

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

Parametric portfolio policies may experience estimation risk. I develop a generalized Bayesian framework that updates priors, delivering a posterior distribution over characteristic tilts and out-of-sample returns that is the unique…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-10 Christopher G. Lamoureux

The paper deals with planar segment processes given by a density with respect to the Poisson process. Parametric models involve reference distributions of directions and/or lengths of segments. These distributions generally do not coincide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-30 Viktor Benes , Jakub Vecera , Milan Pultar

In mathematical finance, Levy processes are widely used for their ability to model both continuous variation and abrupt, discontinuous jumps. These jumps are practically relevant, so reliable inference on the feature that controls jump…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Zhe Wang , Ryan Martin

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-20 Lucas Maystre , Victor Kristof , Matthias Grossglauser

Phylodynamics seeks to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. One way to accomplish this task formulates an observed sequence data likelihood exploiting…

In a first part, we present a mathematical analysis of a general methodology of a probabilistic learning inference that allows for estimating a posterior probability model for a stochastic boundary value problem from a prior probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Christian Soize

We develop Bayesian models for density regression with emphasis on discrete outcomes. The problem of density regression is approached by considering methods for multivariate density estimation of mixed scale variables, and obtaining…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-14 Georgios Papageorgiou

An important functional of Poisson random measure is the negative binomial process (NBP). We use NBP to introduce a generalized Poisson-Kingman distribution and its corresponding random discrete probability measure. This random discrete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-04 Sadegh Chegini , Mahmoud Zarepour