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Traditional economic growth theories, grounded in deterministic and often linear frameworks, fail to adequately capture the inherent uncertainty, non-commutativity, and complex interdependencies of modern economies. This paper proposes a…
Understanding the structure and formation of networks is a central topic in complexity science. Economic networks are formed by decisions of individual agents and thus not properly described by established random graph models. In this…
The aim of this work is to explore the possible types of phenomena that simple macroeconomic Agent-Based models (ABM) can reproduce. We propose a methodology, inspired by statistical physics, that characterizes a model through its 'phase…
We consider a simple variant of the von Neumann model of an expanding economy, in which multiple producers make goods according to their production function. The players trade their goods at the market and then use the bundles acquired for…
Ecosystems frequently display the coexistence of diverse species under resource competition, typically resulting in skewed distributions of rarity and abundance. A potential driver of such coexistence is environmental fluctuations that…
Through this paper, an attempt has been made to quantify the underlying relationships between the leading macroeconomic indicators. More clearly, an effort has been made in this paper to assess the cointegrating relationships and examine…
Frequency dependent selection and demographic fluctuations play important roles in evolutionary and ecological processes. Under frequency dependent selection, the average fitness of the population may increase or decrease based on…
A simple heuristic model, including the multiple exchanges between economic agents, is used to explain the mechanism of emerging and maintenance of social inequality in the market economy. The model allows calculating a density function of…
We describe a new complex system model of an evolving production economy. This model is the simplest we can envisage which incorporates the new observation that the rate of an economic production process depends only on the minimum of its…
We consider the randomness of market trade as the origin of price and return stochasticity. We look at time series of trade values and volumes as random variables during the averaging interval {\Delta} and describe the dependences of…
We forecast the full conditional distribution of macroeconomic outcomes by systematically integrating three key principles: using high-dimensional data with appropriate regularization, adopting rigorous out-of-sample validation procedures,…
Is there a general economic pathway recapitulated by individual cities over and over? Identifying such evolution structure, if any, would inform models for the assessment, maintenance, and forecasting of urban sustainability and economic…
Macroevolution is considered as a problem of stochastic dynamics in a system with many competing agents. Evolutionary events (speciations and extinctions) are triggered by fitness records found by random exploration of the agents' fitness…
We present a set of models of the main stylized facts of market price fluctuations. These models comprise dynamical evolution with threshold dynamics and Langevin price equation with multiplicative noise, percolation models to describe the…
Economic growth is often associated with diversification of economic activities. Making a product in a country is dependent on having, and acquiring, the capabilities needed to make the product, making the process path-dependent. We derive…
Given the combined evidences of bounded rationality, limited information and short-term optimization, over-the-counter (OTC) fresh product markets provide a perfect instance where to develop a behavioural approach to the analysis of…
Predictions of emergent phenomena, appearing on the macroscopic layer of a complex system, can fail if they are made by a microscopic model. This study demonstrates and analyses this claim on a well-known complex system, Conway's Game of…
From some observations on economic behaviors, in particular changing economic conditions with time and space, we develop a very simple model for the evolution of economic entities within a geographical type of framework. We raise a few…
Proceeding from the concept of rational expectations, a new dynamic model of supply and demand in a single market with one supplier, one buyer, and one kind of commodity is developed. Unlike the cob-web dynamic theories with adaptive…
In this paper we introduce a simple model for a financial market characterized by a single stock or good and an interplay between two different traders populations, chartists and fundamentalists, which determine the price dynamic of the…