Related papers: Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions …
A broad range of natural and social systems from human microbiome to financial markets can go through critical transitions, where the system suddenly collapses to another stable configuration. Critical transitions can be unexpected, with…
Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on…
Regime shifts are quite common in complex systems like cell regulations, disease transmissions, ecosystems, marine ice instability, etc. Several statistical indicators known as early warning signals (EWS) have been theorized to anticipate…
Critical transitions are the abrupt shifts between qualitatively different states of a system, and they are crucial to understanding tipping points in complex dynamical systems across ecology, climate science, and biology. Detecting these…
Stemming from physics and later applied to other fields such as ecology, the theory of critical transitions suggests that some regime shifts are preceded by statistical early warning signals. Reddit's r/place experiment, a large-scale…
Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…
We analyst in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems (see Phys. Rev. Lett . vol. 113, 264102 (2014)) by application to the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary…
Many dynamical systems, including power systems, recover from perturbations more slowly as they approach critical transitions---a phenomenon known as critical slowing down. If the system is stochastically forced, autocorrelation and…
Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) can be used to anticipate such transitions…
Anticipating bifurcation-induced transitions in dynamical systems has gained relevance in various fields of the natural, social, and economic sciences. Before the annihilation of a system's equilibrium point by means of a bifurcation, the…
A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node…
Predicting critical transitions in complex systems, such as epileptic seizures in the brain, represents a major challenge in scientific research. The high-dimensional characteristics and hidden critical signals further complicate…
Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very…
Many natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions -- abrupt and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can provide an early warning signal (EWS) for critical transitions by learning generic…
Critical transitions (or tipping points) are drastic sudden changes observed in many dynamical systems. Large classes of critical transitions are associated to systems, which drift slowly towards a bifurcation point. In the context of…
A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation because of the centre manifold theorem. It is often tacitly…
We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasi-stable…
Bifurcations mark qualitative changes of long-term behavior in dynamical systems and can often signal sudden ("hard") transitions or catastrophic events (divergences). Accurately locating them is critical not just for deeper understanding…