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A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-03-28 Stéphan Clémençon , Viet Chi Tran , Hector De Arazoza

Increasing effort is put into the development of methods for learning mechanistic models from data. This task entails not only the accurate estimation of parameters but also a suitable model structure. Recent work on the discovery of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Justin N. Kreikemeyer , Philipp Andelfinger , Adelinde M. Uhrmacher

The classification of the long-term behavior of dynamical systems is a fundamental problem in mathematics. For both deterministic and stochastic dynamics specific classes of models verify Palis' conjecture: the long-term behavior is…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-19 Alexandru Hening , Dang H. Nguyen , Sebastian J. Schreiber

This work reviews deterministic and diffusion approximations of the stochastic chemical reaction networks and explains their applications. We discuss the added value the diffusion approximation provides for systems with different phenomena,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-15 Pavel Mozgunov , Marco Beccuti , Andras Horvath , Thomas Jaki , Roberta Sirovich , Enrico Bibbona

Cyclic (rock-paper-scissors-type) population models serve to mimic complex species interactions. Focusing on a paradigmatic three-species model with mutations in one dimension, we observe an interplay between equilibrium and non-equilibrium…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-07-07 Anton A. Winkler , Tobias Reichenbach , Erwin Frey

Single species population models and discrete stochastic gene frequency models are two standards of mathematical biology important for the evolution of populations. An agent based model is presented which reproduces these models and then…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-21 John C. Stevenson

This paper analyzes the stationary distributions of populations governed by the discrete stochastic logistic and Ricker difference equations at equilibrium examines with the gamma distribution. We identify mathematical relationships between…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-26 Haiyan Wang

We observe n possibly dependent random variables, the distribution of which is presumed to be stationary even though this might not be true, and we aim at estimating the stationary distribution. We establish a non-asymptotic deviation bound…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-10 Alexandre Lecestre

We discuss stochastic dynamics of populations of individuals playing games. Our models possess two evolutionarily stable strategies: an efficient one, where a population is in a state with the maximal payoff (fitness) and a risk-dominant…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Jacek Miekisz

Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-06 Etienne Pardoux

In biology and ecology, individuals or communities of individuals living in unpredictable environments often alternate between different evolutionary strategies to spread and reduce risks. Such behavior is commonly referred to as…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-11 Jorge Hidalgo , Simone Pigolotti , Miguel A. Munoz

Stochastic models of diffusion with excluded-volume effects are used to model many biological and physical systems at a discrete level. The average properties of the population may be described by a continuum model based on partial…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2012-12-20 Maria Bruna , S. Jonathan Chapman

Finite-size fluctuations arising in the dynamics of competing populations may have dramatic influence on their fate. As an example, in this article, we investigate a model of three species which dominate each other in a cyclic manner.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-12-20 Tobias Reichenbach , Mauro Mobilia , Erwin Frey

Using a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) meta-population model of disease transmission, we present analytical calculations and numerical simulations dissecting the interplay between stochasticity and the division of a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-17 Philip Bittihn , Ramin Golestanian

Stationary stochastic processes (SPs) are a key component of many probabilistic models, such as those for off-the-grid spatio-temporal data. They enable the statistical symmetry of underlying physical phenomena to be leveraged, thereby…

We exhibit a stochastic discrete time model that has exactly the Eigen model as its deterministic continuous limit. Such model can be divided into two phases: reproduction followed by neutral selection. This result suggests that Eigen model…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-02-03 Fabio Musso

We present an explicit unified stochastic model of fluctuations in population size due to random birth, death, density-dependent competition and environmental fluctuations. Stochastic dynamics provide insight into small populations,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-07-31 Alexei J. Drummond , Peter D. Drummond

Stochastic models share many characteristics with generic parametric models. In some ways they can be regarded as a special case. But for stochastic models there is a notion of weak distribution or generalised random variable, and the same…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-09-05 Hermann G. Matthies

The topic of this paper is modeling and analyzing dependence in stochastic social networks. Using a latent variable block model allows the analysis of dependence between blocks via the analysis of a latent graphical model. Our approach to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-27 Nana Wang , Wolfgang Polonik

We present a full stochastic description of the pair approximation scheme to study binary-state dynamics on heterogeneous networks. Within this general approach, we obtain a set of equations for the dynamical correlations, fluctuations and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-11-05 A. F. Peralta , A. Carro , M. San Miguel , R. Toral