Related papers: Modeling Credit Spreads Using Nonlinear Regression
Distributional robustness is a central goal of prediction algorithms due to the prevalent distribution shifts in real-world data. The prediction model aims to minimize the worst-case risk among a class of distributions, a.k.a., an…
We introduce tree linear cascades, a class of linear structural equation models for which the error variables are uncorrelated but need not be Gaussian nor independent. We show that, in spite of this weak assumption, the tree structure of…
Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…
This paper develops a novel Bayesian approach for nonlinear regression with symmetric matrix predictors, often used to encode connectivity of different nodes. Unlike methods that vectorize matrices as predictors that result in a large…
This paper presents Sparse Partitioning, a Bayesian method for identifying predictors that either individually or in combination with others affect a response variable. The method is designed for regression problems involving binary or…
For more than a half-century, credit risk management has used credit scoring models in each of its well-defined stages to manage credit risk. Application scoring is used to decide whether to grant a credit or not, while behavioral scoring…
In this work, a novel approach for the construction and training of time series models is presented that deals with the problem of learning on large time series with non-equispaced observations, which at the same time may possess features…
An approach is proposed to determine structural shift in time-series assuming non-linear dependence of lagged values of dependent variable. Copulas are used to model non-linear dependence of time series components.
Statisticians usually restrict regression to model relationships that are explicitly defined dependent and independent random variables; this paper outlines the newly developed method of non-response analysis and rotational analysis for…
Time-to-event models are a popular tool to analyse data where the outcome variable is the time to the occurrence of a specific event of interest. Here we focus on the analysis of time-to-event outcomes that are either intrisically discrete…
The combination of nondeterminism and probability in concurrent systems lead to the development of several interpretations of process behavior. If we restrict our attention to linear properties only, we can identify three main approaches to…
We consider nonparametric prediction with multiple covariates, in particular categorical or functional predictors, or a mixture of both. The method proposed bases on an extension of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator where a kernel function is…
Assessment of risk levels for existing credit accounts is important to the implementation of bank policies and offering financial products. This paper uses cluster analysis of behaviour of credit card accounts to help assess credit risk…
In complex systems, crucial parameters are often subject to unpredictable changes in time. Climate, biological evolution and networks provide numerous examples for such non-stationarities. In many cases, improved statistical models are…
This article introduces a novel nonparametric methodology for Generalized Linear Models which combines the strengths of the binary regression and latent variable formulations for categorical data, while overcoming their disadvantages.…
Semiparametric regression offers a flexible framework for modeling non-linear relationships between a response and covariates. A prime example are generalized additive models where splines (say) are used to approximate non-linear functional…
We propose a framework for analyzing the sensitivity of counterfactuals to parametric assumptions about the distribution of latent variables in structural models. In particular, we derive bounds on counterfactuals as the distribution of…
Computer Vision practitioners must thoroughly understand their model's performance, but conditional evaluation is complex and error-prone. In biometric verification, model performance over continuous covariates---real-number attributes of…
High dimensional and heterogeneous count data are collected in various applied fields. In this paper, we look closely at high-resolution sequencing data on the microbiome, which have enabled researchers to study the genomes of entire…
Frequentist and Bayesian methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimal properties. In real-life classification and regression problems, situations exist in which a model based on one of the methods is preferable based on some…