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We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-05-29 Fergal P. Casey , Joshua J. Waterfall , Ryan N. Gutenkunst , Christopher R. Myers , James P. Sethna

We study a variance reduction strategy based on control variables for simulating the averaged macroscopic behavior of a stochastic slow-fast system. We assume that this averaged behavior can be written in terms of a few slow degrees of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-16 Ward Melis , Giovanni Samaey

Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-26 Anru Zhang , Mengdi Wang

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the engine of modern Bayesian statistics, being used to approximate the posterior and derived quantities of interest. Despite this, the issue of how the output from a Markov chain is post-processed and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-07 Leah F. South , Marina Riabiz , Onur Teymur , Chris. J. Oates

We study the optimal control of mean-field systems with heterogeneous and asymmetric interactions. This leads to considering a family of controlled Brownian diffusion processes with dynamics depending on the whole collection of marginal…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-29 Anna De Crescenzo , Marco Fuhrman , Idris Kharroubi , Huyên Pham

This paper proposes an Adaptive Stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for stable linear time-invariant systems in the presence of bounded disturbances. We consider multi-input, multi-output systems that can be expressed by a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-11 Monimoy Bujarbaruah , Charlott Vallon

Arguing about the equilibrium distribution of continuous-time Markov chains can be vital for showing properties about the underlying systems. For example in biological systems, bistability of a chemical reaction network can hint at its…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-07-20 Tugrul Dayar , Holger Hermanns , David Spieler , Verena Wolf

The positive impacts of platooning on travel time reliability, congestion, emissions, and energy consumption have been shown for homogeneous roadway segments. However, speed limit changes frequently throughout the transportation network,…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-09-29 Sina Arefizadeh , Alireza Talebpour , Igor Zelenko

We consider a control problem for a finite-state Markov system whose performance is evaluated by a coherent Markov risk measure. For each policy, the risk of a state is approximated by a function of its features, thus leading to a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-05 Andrzej Ruszczynski , Shangzhe Yang

This article is concerned with stochastic control problems for backward doubly stochastic differential equations of mean-field type, where the coefficient functions depend on the joint distribution of the state process and the control…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-26 Jian Song , Meng Wang

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are central in computational statistics, and typically rely on detailed balance to ensure invariance with respect to a target distribution. Although straightforward to construct by Metropolization, this can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Erik Jansson , Moritz Schauer , Ruben Seyer , Akash Sharma

This paper focuses on finding approximate solutions to stochastic optimal control problems with control domains being not necessarily convex, where the state trajectory is subject to controlled stochastic differential equations. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-15 Shaolin Ji , Rundong Xu

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are often used in clustering since they guarantee asymptotically exact expectations in the infinite-time limit. In finite time, though, slow mixing often leads to poor performance. Modern computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-24 Tin D. Nguyen , Brian L. Trippe , Tamara Broderick

This paper studies a variation of the continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection where a tracking-error penalization is added to the mean-variance criterion. The tracking error term penalizes the distance between the allocation…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-21 William Lefebvre , Gregoire Loeper , Huyên Pham

Mixture models provide a flexible representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. From the Bayesian point of view, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods provide a way to draw inferences from these models. In particular,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-06 Carolina Valani Cavalcante , Kelly Cristina Mota Gonçalves

We consider Palm distributions arising in a Markov process with time homogeneous transitions which is jointly stationary with multiple point processes. Motivated by a BAR approach studied in the recent paper Braverman, Dai and Miyazawa…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-15 Masakiyo Miyazawa

We consider large systems of particles interacting through rough but bounded interaction kernels. We are able to control the relative entropy between the $N$-particle distribution and the expected limit which solves the corresponding Vlasov…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-11-13 Pierre-Emmanuel Jabin , Zhenfu Wang

We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-03 Piotr Gwiżdż , Marta Tyran-Kamińska

Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-28 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Gerrit Großmann , Verena Wolf

We study a family of mean field games with a state variable evolving as a multivariate jump diffusion process. The jump component is driven by a Poisson process with a time-dependent intensity function. All coefficients, i.e. drift,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-14 Chiara Benazzoli , Luciano Campi , Luca Di Persio