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We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-03-25 Jaume Masoliver , Josep Perello

The extreme value statistics of active matter offer significant insight into their unique properties. A phase transition has recently been reported in a model of branching run-and-tumble particles, describing the spatial spreading of an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-06-11 Bertrand Lacroix-A-Chez-Toine , Asaf Miron

This thesis is devoted to the study of extreme value statistics in stochastic processes and their applications. In the first part, we obtain exact analytical results on the extreme value statistics of both discrete-time and continuous-time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-10-24 Benjamin De Bruyne

Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-09 Sreelekha Guggilam , S. M. Arshad Zaidi , Varun Chandola , Abani Patra

Many events in biology are triggered when a diffusing searcher finds a target, which is called a first passage time (FPT). The overwhelming majority of FPT studies have analyzed the time it takes a single searcher to find a target. However,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-23 Sean D Lawley

Extremal problems involving independent sets are much studied. Two of the most important extremal problems in this context are concerned with the sharp upper bounds for the number of independent sets of fixed size and the independence…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2022-03-22 Kristina Dedndreaj

Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-07 Gordon Gudendorf , Johan Segers

We study non-stationary stochastic processes arising from sequential dynamical systems built on maps with a neutral fixed points and prove the existence of Extreme Value Laws for such processes. We use an approach developed in \cite{FFV16},…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-17 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Sandro Vaienti

We investigate the distribution and multiple occurrences of extreme events stochastic processes constructed by sampling the solution of a Stochastic Differential Equation on $\mathbb{R}^n$. We do so by studying the action of an annealead…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-20 F. Flandoli , S. Galatolo , P. Giulietti , S. Vaienti

We consider empirical multi-dimensional Rare Events Point Processes that keep track both of the time occurrence of extremal observations and of their severity, for stochastic processes arising from a dynamical system, by evaluating a given…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-09-19 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mário Magalhães

Many scientific questions can be framed as asking for a first passage time (FPT), which generically describes the time it takes a random "searcher" to find a "target." The important timescale in a variety of biophysical systems is the time…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-18 Hwai-Ray Tung , Sean D Lawley

We study the Wiener--Hopf factorization and the distribution of extrema for general stable processes. By connecting the Wiener--Hopf factors with a certain elliptic-like function we are able to obtain many explicit and general results, such…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-11 Alexey Kuznetsov

The risk of occurrence of atypical phenomena is a cross-cutting concern in several areas, such as engineering, climatology, finance, actuarial, among others. Extreme value theory is the natural tool to approach this theme. Many of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-09 Marta Ferreira , Ana Paula Martins , Helena Ferreira

We establish the existence and pathwise uniqueness of regime-switching diffusion processes in an infinite state space, which could be time-inhomogeneous and state-dependent. Then the strong Feller properties of these processes are…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-30 Jinghai Shao

Extreme events are unusual and rare large-amplitude fluctuations that occur can unexpectedly in nonlinear dynamical systems. Events above the extreme event threshold of the probability distribution of a nonlinear process characterize…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-03-08 Premraj Durairaj , Sathiyadevi Kanagaraj , Suresh Kumarasamy , Karthikeyan Rajagopal

We prove limit theorems of an entirely new type for certain long memory regularly varying stationary infinitely divisible random processes. These theorems involve multiple phase transitions governed by how long the memory is. Apart from one…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-23 Gennady Samorodnitsky , Yizao Wang

We investigate extreme value statistics (EVS) of general discrete time and continuous space symmetric jump processes. We first show that for unbounded jump processes, the semi-infinite propagator $G_0(x,n)$, defined as the probability for a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-09-08 Jérémie Klinger , Raphaël Voituriez , Olivier Bénichou

We study the extremes for a class of a symmetric stable random fields with long range dependence. We prove functional extremal theorems both in the space of sup measures and in the space of cadlag functions of several variables. The limits…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-17 Zaoli Chen , Gennady Samorodnitsky

Max-stable processes are widely used to model spatial extremes. These processes exhibit asymptotic dependence meaning that the large values of the process can occur simultaneously over space. Recently, inverted max-stable processes have…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

In this article, we study the extremal processes of branching Brownian motions conditioned on having an unusually large maximum. The limiting point measures form a one-parameter family and are the decoration point measures in the extremal…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-01 Julien Berestycki , Éric Brunet , Aser Cortines , Bastien Mallein
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