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We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…
Massively parallel computer architectures create new opportunities for the performance of long-timescale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Here, we introduce the path-accelerated molecular dynamics (PAMD) method that takes advantage of…
Performing Bayesian inference on large spatio-temporal models requires extracting inverse elements of large sparse precision matrices for marginal variances, as well as estimating model hyperparameters. Although direct matrix factorizations…
Applications of stochastic models often involve the evaluation of steady-state performance, which requires solving a set of balance equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or even uncountable. As a result,…
The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper, we extend…
Forecasting the dynamics of large complex networks from previous time-series data is important in a wide range of contexts. Here we present a machine learning scheme for this task using a parallel architecture that mimics the topology of…
We study a one-dimensional Markov modulated random walk with jumps. It is assumed that amplitudes of jumps as well as a chosen velocity regime are random and depend on a time spent by the process at a previous state of the underlying Markov…
We present a method to sample Markov-chain trajectories constrained to both the initial and final conditions, which we term Markov bridges. The trajectories are conditioned to end in a specific state at a given time. We derive the master…
We present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Markov chain trajectories with proposals constructed in reverse time, which is advantageous when paths are conditioned to end in a rare set. The reverse time proposal distribution is…
This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…
The construction of Mapper has emerged in the last decade as a powerful and effective topological data analysis tool that approximates and generalizes other topological summaries, such as the Reeb graph, the contour tree, split, and joint…
The paper deals with the developing of the methodological backgrounds for the modeling and simulation of complex dynamical objects. Such backgrounds allow us to perform coordinate transformation and formulate the algorithm of its usage for…
We study the $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-PAC policy identification problem in finite-horizon episodic Markov Decision Processes. Existing approaches provide finite-time guarantees for approximate settings ($\varepsilon>0$) but suffer from high…
This paper presents a new Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) that uses convex analysis to simulate efficiently from high-dimensional densities that are log-concave, a class of probability distributions that is widely used in…
We propose a new framework for formulating optimal transport distances between Markov chains. Previously known formulations studied couplings between the entire joint distribution induced by the chains, and derived solutions via a reduction…
This work introduces and studies a new family of velocity jump Markov processes directly amenable to exact simulation with the following two properties: i) trajectories converge in law when a time-step parameter vanishes towards a given…
Random walks are a fundamental primitive used in many machine learning algorithms with several applications in clustering and semi-supervised learning. Despite their relevance, the first efficient parallel algorithm to compute random walks…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are algorithms used to sample probability distributions, commonly used to sample the Boltzmann distribution of physical/chemical models (e.g., protein folding, Ising model, etc.). This allows us to study…
In this paper, we provide a family of dynamic programming based algorithms to sample nearly-shortest self avoiding walks between two points of the integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}^2$. We show that if the shortest path of between two points has…
Many chemical reactions and molecular processes occur on timescales that are significantly longer than those accessible by direct simulation. One successful approach to estimating dynamical statistics for such processes is to use many short…