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Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective…
Kinetic equations model the position-velocity distribution of particles subject to transport and collision effects. Under a diffusive scaling, these combined effects converge to a diffusion equation for the position density in the limit of…
In this article we consider likelihood-based estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov (POMV) diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, using the…
In this paper we discuss the possibility of using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for weak approximation schemes. It turns out that by means of a simple coupling between consecutive time discretisation levels, one can achieve the same…
We present a mathematical framework for constructing and analyzing parallel algorithms for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The resulting algorithms have the capacity to simulate a wide range of spatio-temporal scales in…
Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
We present a novel multilevel Monte Carlo approach for estimating quantities of interest for stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Drawing inspiration from [Giles and Szpruch: Antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo estimation for…
It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…
Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…
We generalize the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method of Giles to the simulation of systems of particles that interact via a mean field. When the number of particles is large, these systems are described by a McKean-Vlasov process - a…
Stochastic epidemic models (SEMs) fit to incidence data are critical to elucidating outbreak dynamics, shaping response strategies, and preparing for future epidemics. SEMs typically represent counts of individuals in discrete infection…
Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
In recent times empirical likelihood has been widely applied under Bayesian framework. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are frequently employed to sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest. However,…
Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) is now a popular method for performing Bayesian statistical inference on challenging state space models (SSMs) with unknown static parameters. It uses a particle filter (PF) at each iteration of an…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are indispensable when sampling from a complex, high-dimensional distribution by a conventional method is intractable. Even though MCMC is a powerful tool, it is also hard to control and tune in…
Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and…
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…
This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating development…
In order to learn the complex features of large spatio-temporal data, models with large parameter sets are often required. However, estimating a large number of parameters is often infeasible due to the computational and memory costs of…