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Predictive dynamical models for marine ecosystems are used for a variety of needs. Due to sparse measurements and limited understanding of the myriad of ocean processes, there is however significant uncertainty. There is model uncertainty…
When training data is sparse, more domain knowledge must be incorporated into the learning algorithm in order to reduce the effective size of the hypothesis space. This paper builds on previous work in which knowledge about qualitative…
The dynamics of stochastic reaction networks within cells are inevitably modulated by factors considered extrinsic to the network such as for instance the fluctuations in ribsome copy numbers for a gene regulatory network. While several…
Large ensembles of stochastically evolving interacting particles describe phenomena in diverse fields including statistical physics, neuroscience, biology, and engineering. In such systems, the infinitesimal evolution of each particle…
The internal behaviour of a population is an important feature to take account of when modelling their dynamics. In line with kin selection theory, many social species tend to cluster into distinct groups in order to enhance their overall…
We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…
Bayesian theories of biological and brain function speculate that Markov blankets (a conditional independence separating a system from external states) play a key role for facilitating inference-like behaviour in living systems. Although it…
Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…
We derive fundamental sample complexity bounds for recovering sparse and structured signals for linear and nonlinear observation models including sparse regression, group testing, multivariate regression and problems with missing features.…
In underwater acoustics, shallow water environments act as modal dispersive waveguides when considering low-frequency sources. In this context, propagating signals can be described as a sum of few modal components, each of them propagating…
Implicit stochastic models, where the data-generation distribution is intractable but sampling is possible, are ubiquitous in the natural sciences. The models typically have free parameters that need to be inferred from data collected in…
Machine learning techniques not only offer efficient tools for modelling dynamical systems from data, but can also be employed as frontline investigative instruments for the underlying physics. Nontrivial information about the original…
We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are…
Bayesian methods hold significant promise for improving the uncertainty quantification ability and robustness of deep neural network models. Recent research has seen the investigation of a number of approximate Bayesian inference methods…
Living organisms survive and multiply even though they have uncertain and incomplete information about their environment and imperfect models to predict the consequences of their actions. Bayesian models have been proposed to face this…
Probabilistic inference provides a language for describing how organisms may learn from and adapt to their environment. The computations needed to implement probabilistic inference often require specific representations, akin to having the…
Sparse models are desirable for many applications across diverse domains as they can perform automatic variable selection, aid interpretability, and provide regularization. When fitting sparse models in a Bayesian framework, however,…
This paper develops a Bayesian mechanics for adaptive systems. Firstly, we model the interface between a system and its environment with a Markov blanket. This affords conditions under which states internal to the blanket encode information…
We consider Gaussian mixture models in high dimensions and concentrate on the twin tasks of detection and feature selection. Under sparsity assumptions on the difference in means, we derive information bounds and establish the performance…
Learning identifiable representations and models from low-level observations is helpful for an intelligent spacecraft to complete downstream tasks reliably. For temporal observations, to ensure that the data generating process is provably…