Related papers: Information Geometry Approach to Parameter Estimat…
Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes form a general class of non-diffusion stochastic models that involve both deterministic trajectories and random jumps at random times. In this paper, we state a new characterization of the jump rate…
Many biological and medical questions can be modeled using time-to-event data in finite-state Markov chains, with the phase-type distribution describing intervals between events. We solve the inverse problem: given a phase-type…
This paper addresses the key challenge of estimating the asymptotic covariance associated with the Markov chain central limit theorem, which is essential for visualizing and terminating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. We focus…
We study the problem of sequentially testing whether a given stochastic process is generated by a known Markov chain. Formally, given access to a stream of random variables, we want to quickly determine whether this sequence is a trajectory…
We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…
A novel Markovian network evolution model is introduced and analysed by means of information theory. It will be proved that the model, called Network Evolution Chain, is a stationary and ergodic stochastic process. Therefore, the Asymptotic…
There is a growing interest in the literature for adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on sequences of random transition kernels $\{P_n\}$ where the kernel $P_n$ is allowed to have an invariant distribution $\pi_n$ not…
Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…
Markov chains are a common framework for individual-based state and time discrete models in ecology and evolution. Their use, however, is largely limited to systems with a low number of states, since the transition matrices involved pose…
When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This can be done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…
This article studies the asymptotic properties of Bayesian or frequentist estimators of a vector of parameters related to structural properties of sequences of graphs. The estimators studied originate from a particular class of graphex…
We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…
We present a geometrically enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler for networks based on a discrete curvature measure defined on graphs. Specifically, we incorporate the concept of graph Forman curvature into sampling procedures on both…
The Exponential-family Random Graph Model (ERGM) is a powerful model to fit networks with complex structures. However, for dynamic valued networks whose observations are matrices of counts that evolve over time, the development of the ERGM…
Posterior sampling is a task of central importance in Bayesian inference. For many applications in Bayesian meta-analysis and Bayesian transfer learning, the prior distribution is unknown and needs to be estimated from samples. In practice,…
There exists a range of different models for estimating and simulating credit risk transitions to optimally manage credit risk portfolios and products. In this chapter we present a Coupled Markov Chain approach to model rating transitions…
A random phase property establishing a link between quasi-one-dimensional random Schroedinger operators and full random matrix theory is advocated. Briefly summarized it states that the random transfer matrices placed into a normal system…
This paper presents a model of asymmetric bifurcating autoregressive process with random coefficients. We couple this model with a Galton Watson tree to take into account possibly missing observations. We propose least-squares estimators…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are now widely used for cosmological parameter estimation. Chains are generated to sample the posterior probability distribution obtained following the Bayesian approach. An important issue is how…
Markov chain (MC) algorithms are ubiquitous in machine learning and statistics and many other disciplines. Typically, these algorithms can be formulated as acceptance rejection methods. In this work we present a novel estimator applicable…