Related papers: Finite-length Analysis on Tail probability for Mar…
Given finite-dimensional random vectors $Y$, $X$, and $Z$ that form a Markov chain in that order (i.e., $Y \to X \to Z$), we derive upper bounds on the excess minimum risk using generalized information divergence measures. Here, $Y$ is a…
We focus on a data sequence produced by repetitive quantum measurement on an internal hidden quantum system, and call it a hidden Markovian process. Using a quantum version of the Perron-Frobenius theorem, we derive novel upper and lower…
We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…
We prove the first Chernoff-Hoeffding bounds for general nonreversible finite-state Markov chains based on the standard L_1 (variation distance) mixing-time of the chain. Specifically, consider an ergodic Markov chain M and a weight…
We study the problem of clustering $T$ trajectories of length $H$, each generated by one of K unknown ergodic Markov chains over a finite state space of size $S$. We derive an instance-dependent, high-probability lower bound on the…
The sums and maxima of non-stationary random length sequences of regularly varying random variables may have the same tail and extremal indices, Markovich and Rodionov (2020). The main constraint is that there exists a unique series in a…
Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a target distribution via ergodic averages. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages…
We derive sharp probability bounds on the tails of a product of symmetric non-negative random variables using only information about their first two moments. If the covariance matrix of the random variables is known exactly, these bounds…
This work introduces a notion of approximate probabilistic trace equivalence for labelled Markov chains, and relates this new concept to the known notion of approximate probabilistic bisimulation. In particular this work shows that the…
We study branching processes of independently splitting particles in the continuous time setting. If time is calibrated such that particles live on average one unit of time, the corresponding transition rates are fully determined by the…
Frequentist model averaging has been proposed as a method for incorporating "model uncertainty" into confidence interval construction. Such proposals have been of particular interest in the environmental and ecological statistics…
Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…
We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…
Suppose that $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ is a supercritical branching process in independent and identically distributed random environment. The right tail function of the scaled growth rate for $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ is studied. The upper bounds for…
We propose a simple way of testing whether a given set of observations can come from a given theoretical cumulative distribution. In the test more weight is attached to the tails of the distribution than in the usual Kolmogorov or Smirnov…
This paper contributes to answering a question that is of crucial importance in risk management and extreme value theory: How to select the threshold above which one assumes that the tail of a distribution follows a generalized Pareto…
For a reversible and ergodic Markov chain $\{X_n,n\geq0\}$ with invariant distribution $\pi$, we show that a valid confidence interval for $\pi(h)$ can be constructed whenever the asymptotic variance $\sigma^2_P(h)$ is finite and positive.…
We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$,…
The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…
We provide a general framework for computing upper bounds on mixing times of finite Markov chains when its minimal ideal is left zero. Our analysis is based on combining results by Brown and Diaconis with our previous work on stationary…