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Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 John H. J. Einmahl , Laurens de Haan , Deyuan Li

We consider estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles for heavy-tailed data that are right-censored. We study a general procedure of removing low importance observations in tail estimators. This trimming procedure is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-13 Martin Bladt , Hansjoerg Albrecher , Jan Beirlant

We introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-11 Miguel de Carvalho , Soraia Pereira , Paula Pereira , Patrícia de Zea Bermudez

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-17 Raphaël Huser , Anthony C. Davison , Marc G. Genton

A variety of estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution, the approximating distribution for excesses over a high threshold, have been proposed, always assuming the underlying data to be independent. We recently…

Applications · Statistics 2016-05-26 Lukas Martig , Jürg Hüsler

The relationship between a response variable and its covariates can vary significantly, especially in scenarios where covariates take on extremely high or low values. This paper introduces a max-linear tail regression model specifically…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Zhengjun Zhang

A tail empirical process for heavy-tailed and right-censored data is introduced and its Gaussian approximation is established. In this context, a (weighted) new Hill-type estimator for positive extreme value index is proposed and its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-06 Brahim Brahimi , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir , Louiza Soltane

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang

Estimating the tail index parameter is one of the primal objectives in extreme value theory. For heavy-tailed distributions the Hill estimator is the most popular way to estimate the tail index parameter. Improving the Hill estimator was…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-05 László Németh , András Zempléni

In this article, we present the maximum weighted likelihood estimator (MWLE) for robust estimations of heavy-tail finite mixture models (FMM). This is motivated by the complex distributional phenomena of insurance claim severity data, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-04 Tsz Chai Fung

We consider heavy-tailed distributions and compare the well-known estimators of the tail index, based on extreme value theory with a comparatively recent estimator based on a different idea.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-14 Vygantas Paulauskas , Marijus Vaičiulis

The Weibull tail-coefficient (WTC) plays a crucial role in extreme value statistics when dealing with Weibull-type tails. Several distributions, such as normal, Gamma, Weibull, and Logistic distributions, exhibit this type of tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-08 Lígia Henriques-Rodrigues , Frederico Caeiro , M. Ivette Gomes

Prediction of quantiles at extreme tails is of interest in numerous applications. Extreme value modelling provides various competing predictors for this point prediction problem. A common method of assessment of a set of competing…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-30 Axel Gandy , Kaushik Jana , Almut E. D. Veraart

Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…

Applications · Statistics 2011-09-27 Marta Ferreira

In extreme value inference it is a fundamental problem how the target value is required to be extreme by the extreme value theory. In iid settings this study both theoretically and numerically compares tail estimators, which are based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-04 Taku Moriyama

We introduce a consistent estimator of the extreme value index under random truncation based on a single sample fraction of top observations from truncated and truncation data. We establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-02 S. Benchaira , D. Meraghni , A. Necir

Whether an extreme observation is an outlier or not, depends strongly on the corresponding tail behaviour of the underlying distribution. We develop an automatic, data-driven method to identify extreme tail behaviour that deviates from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-06 Shrijita Bhattacharya , Jan Beirlant

The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-30 Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Laloë , Cambyse Pakzad

This work deals with the estimation of the extreme value index and extreme quantiles for heavy tailed data,randomly right truncated by another heavy tailed variable. Under mild assumptions and the condition thatthe truncated variable is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-16 Julien Worms , Rym Worms