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We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-10 Alkis Gotovos , Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause , Stefanie Jegelka

We propose a new sampling algorithm combining two quite powerful ideas in the Markov chain Monte Carlo literature -- adaptive Metropolis sampler and two-stage Metropolis-Hastings sampler. The proposed sampling method will be particularly…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-05 Anirban Mondal , Kai Yin , Abhijit Mandal

We propose quantum algorithms that provide provable speedups for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods commonly used for sampling from probability distributions of the form $\pi \propto e^{-f}$, where $f$ is a potential function. Our…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-07 Guneykan Ozgul , Xiantao Li , Mehrdad Mahdavi , Chunhao Wang

Calibration of individual based models (IBMs), successful in modeling complex ecological dynamical systems, is often performed only ad-hoc. Bayesian inference can be used for both parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification, but its…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-09 Jonas Šukys , Mira Kattwinkel

Bayesian inference is useful to obtain a predictive distribution with a small generalization error. However, since posterior distributions are rarely evaluated analytically, we employ the variational Bayesian inference or sampling method to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Yohei Saito , Shun Kimura , Koujin Takeda

The need to calibrate increasingly complex statistical models requires a persistent effort for further advances on available, computationally intensive Monte Carlo methods. We study here an advanced version of familiar Markov Chain Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-20 Alexandros Beskos , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Erik Pazos

Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), remain the most regularly-used approach for implementing Bayesian inference. However, the computational cost of these approaches usually scales worse than linearly with the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-12 Leonardo Ripoli , Richard G. Everitt

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Hyunsu Kim , Giung Nam , Chulhee Yun , Hongseok Yang , Juho Lee

The Bouncy Particle Sampler is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on a nonreversible piecewise deterministic Markov process. In this scheme, a particle explores the state space of interest by evolving according to a linear dynamics…

Computation · Statistics 2020-12-24 George Deligiannidis , Daniel Paulin , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Arnaud Doucet

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-21 Luca Martino , Victor Elvira , Gustau Camps-Valls

Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) is now a popular method for performing Bayesian statistical inference on challenging state space models (SSMs) with unknown static parameters. It uses a particle filter (PF) at each iteration of an…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-19 Christopher Drovandi , Richard G Everitt , Andrew Golightly , Dennis Prangle

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-01 Hector J. Hortua , Riccardo Volpi , Dimitri Marinelli , Luigi Malago

We introduce Preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilises a Normalising Flow (NF) in order to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-24 Minas Karamanis , Florian Beutler , John A. Peacock , David Nabergoj , Uros Seljak

Monte Carlo methods are widely used to estimate observables in many-body quantum systems. However, conventional sampling schemes often require a large number of samples to achieve sufficient accuracy. In this work we propose the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-29 Wenxuan Zhang , Dingzu Wang , Dario Poletti

Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of {\it a-posteriori} estimators which are often…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 Luca Martino

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

Computation · Statistics 2008-07-22 Ioana A. Cosma , Masoud Asgharian

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Jonathan H. Huggins , Daniel M. Roy

Gaussian process (GP) models form a core part of probabilistic machine learning. Considerable research effort has been made into attacking three issues with GP models: how to compute efficiently when the number of data is large; how to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-15 James Hensman , Alexander G. de G. Matthews , Maurizio Filippone , Zoubin Ghahramani

Most Markov chain Monte Carlo methods operate in discrete time and are reversible with respect to the target probability. Nevertheless, it is now understood that the use of non-reversible Markov chains can be beneficial in many contexts. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-23 Chris Sherlock , Alexandre H. Thiery

One of the most widely used samplers in practice is the component-wise Metropolis-Hastings (CMH) sampler that updates in turn the components of a vector valued Markov chain using accept-reject moves generated from a proposal distribution.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-22 Jinyoung Yang , Evgeny Levi , Radu V. Craiu , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal