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Modal regression has emerged as a flexible alternative to classical regression models when the conditional mean or median are unable to adequately capture the underlying relation between a response and a predictor variable. This approach is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Ana Pérez-González , Tomás R. Cotos-Yáñez , Rosa M. Crujeiras

Causal disentanglement aims to uncover a representation of data using latent variables that are interrelated through a causal model. Such a representation is identifiable if the latent model that explains the data is unique. In this paper,…

Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Nikolaj Thams , Rikke Søndergaard , Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

A common concern when trying to draw causal inferences from observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding. In practice, many of the covariates may only be proxies of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Oliver Dukes , Ilya Shpitser , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

We highlight that match fixed effects, represented by the coefficients of interaction terms involving dummy variables for two elements, lack identification without specific restrictions on parameters. Consequently, the coefficients…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-22 Suguru Otani , Tohya Sugano

It is often said that the fundamental problem of causal inference is a missing data problem -- the comparison of responses to two hypothetical treatment assignments is made difficult because for every experimental unit only one potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-21 Razieh Nabi , Rohit Bhattacharya , Ilya Shpitser , James M. Robins

Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Andrew Jesson , Alyson Douglas , Peter Manshausen , Maëlys Solal , Nicolai Meinshausen , Philip Stier , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

In studies of discrimination, researchers often seek to estimate a causal effect of race or gender on outcomes. For example, in the criminal justice context, one might ask whether arrested individuals would have been subsequently charged or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-06 Johann Gaebler , William Cai , Guillaume Basse , Ravi Shroff , Sharad Goel , Jennifer Hill

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental challenge for estimating causal effects. To address unobserved confounding, recent literature has turned to two different approaches -- proxy variables and the use of multiple treatments. The first…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Aytijhya Saha , Stephen Bates , Devavrat Shah

We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been extensively used to estimate treatment effects in various…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-24 Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui

One obstacle to ``elevating" correlation to causation is the phenomenon of confounding, i.e., when a correlation between two variables exists because both variables are in fact caused by a third variable. The situation where the confounders…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-24 Caren Marzban , Yikun Zhang , Nicholas Bond , Michael Richman

Unobserved confounding presents a major threat to causal inference from observational studies. Recently, several authors suggest that this problem may be overcome in a shared confounding setting where multiple treatments are independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-25 Dehan Kong , Shu Yang , Linbo Wang

Nonignorable missing outcomes are common in real world datasets and often require strong parametric assumptions to achieve identification. These assumptions can be implausible or untestable, and so we may forgo them in favour of partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-19 Daniel Daly-Grafstein , Paul Gustafson

Missing observations are common in cluster randomised trials. Approaches taken to handling such missing data include: complete case analysis, single-level multiple imputation that ignores the clustering, multiple imputation with a fixed…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-18 Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Michael G. Kenward , Manuel Gomes , Richard Grieve

Drawing causal inference with observational studies is the central pillar of many disciplines. One sufficient condition for identifying the causal effect is that the treatment-outcome relationship is unconfounded conditional on the observed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-17 Peng Ding , Tyler VanderWeele , James Robins

Missing data occur frequently in empirical studies in health and social sciences, often compromising our ability to make accurate inferences. An outcome is said to be missing not at random (MNAR) if, conditional on the observed variables,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-23 BaoLuo Sun , Lan Liu , Wang Miao , Kathleen Wirth , James Robins , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

A major challenge in estimating treatment effects in observational studies is the reliance on untestable conditions such as the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. In this work, we propose an algorithm that can falsify the assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Rickard K. A. Karlsson , Jesse H. Krijthe

With nonignorable nonresponse, an effective method to construct valid estimators of population parameters is to use a covariate vector called instrument that can be excluded from the nonresponse propensity but are still useful covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Ji Chen , Jun Shao

Estimating causal effects of joint interventions on multiple variables is crucial in many domains, but obtaining data from such simultaneous interventions can be challenging. Our study explores how to learn joint interventional effects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-06 Armin Kekić , Sergio Hernan Garrido Mejia , Bernhard Schölkopf
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