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Reasoning under uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in Artificial Intelligence. As with most of these challenges, there is a harsh dilemma between the expressive power of the language used, and the tractability of the computational…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-08 Luise Ge , Brendan Juba , Kris Nilsson

In statistical network analysis, models for binary adjacency matrices satisfying vertex exchangeability are commonly used. However, such models may fail to capture key features of the data-generating process when interactions, rather than…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Ayoushman Bhattacharya , Nilanjan Chakraborty , Robert Lunde

Maximum-entropy distributions are shown to appear in the probability calculus as approximations of a model by exchangeability or a model by sufficiency, the former model being preferable. The implications of this fact are discussed,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-06-27 P. G. L. Porta Mana

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-16 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

De Finetti's theorem, also called the de Finetti-Hewitt-Savage theorem, is a foundational result in probability and statistics. Roughly, it says that an infinite sequence of exchangeable random variables can always be written as a mixture…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-29 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Exchangeable models for countable vertex-labeled graphs cannot replicate the large sample behaviors of sparsity and power law degree distribution observed in many network datasets. Out of this mathematical impossibility emerges the question…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-24 Harry Crane , Walter Dempsey

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Federico Bassetti

We introduce a general Bayesian framework for graph matching grounded in a new theory of exchangeable random permutations. Leveraging the cycle representation of permutations and the literature on exchangeable random partitions, we define,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Francesco Gaffi , Nathaniel Josephs , Lizhen Lin

We consider a decision maker who is unaware of objects to be sampled and thus cannot form beliefs about the occurrence of particular objects. Ex ante she can form beliefs about the occurrence of novelty and the frequencies of yet to be…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-21 Burkhard C. Schipper

This paper studies distribution-free inference in settings where the data set has a hierarchical structure -- for example, groups of observations, or repeated measurements. In such settings, standard notions of exchangeability may not hold.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-05 Yonghoon Lee , Rina Foygel Barber , Rebecca Willett

A standard assumption in machine learning is the exchangeability of data, which is equivalent to assuming that the examples are generated from the same probability distribution independently. This paper is devoted to testing the assumption…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-29 Valentina Fedorova , Alex Gammerman , Ilia Nouretdinov , Vladimir Vovk

This paper argues for a wider use of the functional theory of randomness, a modification of the algorithmic theory of randomness getting rid of unspecified additive constants. Both theories are useful for understanding relationships between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Vladimir Vovk

Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are expressive probabilistic models that provide exact, tractable inference. They achieve this efficiency by making use of local independence. On the other hand, mixtures of exchangeable variable models (MEVMs)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-29 Stefan Lüdtke , Christian Bartelt , Heiner Stuckenschmidt

Machine Learning techniques have become pervasive across a range of different applications, and are now widely used in areas as disparate as recidivism prediction, consumer credit-risk analysis and insurance pricing. The prevalence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-14 Michael Varley , Vaishak Belle

To date, there has been no formal study of the statistical cost of interpretability in machine learning. As such, the discourse around potential trade-offs is often informal and misconceptions abound. In this work, we aim to initiate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Gintare Karolina Dziugaite , Shai Ben-David , Daniel M. Roy

A relationally exchangeable structure is a random combinatorial structure whose law is invariant with respect to relabeling its relations, as opposed to its elements. Aside from exchangeable random partitions, examples include edge…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-22 Harry Crane , Walter Dempsey

We construct a prequential test of probabilistic forecasts that does not reject correct forecasts when the data-generating processes is exchangeable and is not manipulable by a false forecaster.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-21 Alvaro Sandroni , Eran Shmaya

The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-16 Peter Orbanz , Daniel M. Roy

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Species sampling processes have long served as the fundamental framework for modeling random discrete distributions and exchangeable sequences. However, data arising from distinct but related sources require a broader notion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Beatrice Franzolini , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster , Giovanni Rebaudo