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A formal mean square error expansion (MSE) is derived for Euler--Maruyama numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations (SDE). The error expansion is used to construct a pathwise a posteriori adaptive time stepping…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-07-16 Håkon Hoel , Juho Häppölä , Raúl Tempone

Likelihood-free methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation, are powerful tools for practical inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo variants of approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-26 David J. Warne , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-14 Xunpeng Huang , Hanze Dong , Yifan Hao , Yi-An Ma , Tong Zhang

We have extended the multilevel summation (MLS) method, originally developed to evaluate long-range Coulombic interactions in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations [Skeel et al., J. Comput. Chem., 23, 673 (2002)], to handle dispersion…

Materials Science · Physics 2014-01-16 Daniel Tameling , Paul Springer , Paolo Bientinesi , Ahmed E. Ismail

In this article we consider recursive approximations of the smoothing distribution associated to partially observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which are observed discretely in time. Such models appear in a wide variety of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-15 Jeremie Houssineau , Ajay Jasra , Sumeetpal S. Singh

In this paper we develop a very efficient approach to the Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) that measures the average benefit of knowing the value of a subset of uncertain parameters…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-12-09 Michael B. Giles , Takashi Goda

For high-dimensional linear regression models, we review and compare several estimators of variances $\tau^2$ and $\sigma^2$ of the random slopes and errors, respectively. These variances relate directly to ridge regression penalty…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-08 Jurre R. Veerman , Gwenael G. R. Leday , Mark A. van de Wiel

In this article, we propose a space-time Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) estimator for a one-dimensional parabolic stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) of Zakai type. We compare the complexity with the Multilevel Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-12-09 Zhenru Wang , Christoph Reisinger

We consider the pricing of VIX options in the rough Bergomi model. In this setting, the VIX random variable is defined by the one-dimensional integral of the exponential of a Gaussian process with correlated increments, hence approximate…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-28 Florian Bourgey , Stefano De Marco

We present a theoretical and numerical analysis of Monte Carlo methods for the estimation of statistical moments of random variables $X:\Omega\rightarrow E$ taking values in a Banach space $E$. For practical computation, we consider…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Kristin Kirchner , Fabio Nobile , Christoph Schwab , Tommaso Vanzan

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-02 Yasa Syed , Guanyang Wang

Monte Carlo maximum likelihood (MCML) provides an elegant approach to find maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for latent variable models. However, MCML algorithms are computationally expensive when the latent variables are…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-05 Jaewoo Park , Murali Haran

Control variates are variance reduction techniques for Monte Carlo estimators. They play a critical role in improving Monte Carlo estimators in scientific and machine learning applications that involve computationally expensive integrals.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Kaiyu Li , Yiming Yang , Xiaoyuan Cheng , Yi He , Zhuo Sun

In this article we consider a Monte Carlo-based method to filter partially observed diffusions observed at regular and discrete times. Given access only to Euler discretizations of the diffusion process, we present a new procedure which can…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-02-12 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Fangyuan Yu

The linear regression model with a random variable (RV) measurement matrix, where the mean of the random measurement matrix has full column rank, has been extensively studied. In particular, the quasiconvexity of the maximum likelihood…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-16 Ruohai Guo , Jiang Zhu , Xing Jiang , Fengzhong Qu

We show that repulsive random variables can yield Monte Carlo methods with faster convergence rates than the typical $N^{-1/2}$, where $N$ is the number of integrand evaluations. More precisely, we propose stochastic numerical quadratures…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-18 Rémi Bardenet , Adrien Hardy

In this article we develop a multi-grid multi-level Monte Carlo (MGMLMC) method for the stochastic Stokes-Darcy interface model with random hydraulic conductivity both in the porous media domain and on the interface. Because the randomness…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-03-07 Zhipeng Yang , Xiaoming He , Li Zhang , Ju Ming

Stochastic collocation methods for approximating the solution of partial differential equations with random input data (e.g., coefficients and forcing terms) suffer from the curse of dimensionality whereby increases in the stochastic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-05-23 Aretha L. Teckentrup , Peter Jantsch , Clayton G. Webster , Max Gunzburger

In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-30 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

Multilevel Monte Carlo is a key tool for approximating integrals involving expensive scientific models. The idea is to use approximations of the integrand to construct an estimator with improved accuracy over classical Monte Carlo. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-15 Kaiyu Li , Daniel Giles , Toni Karvonen , Serge Guillas , François-Xavier Briol