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We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look-ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. Often these expectations must be computed by Monte Carlo…

Partial differential equation is a powerful tool to characterize various physics systems. In practice, measurement errors are often present and probability models are employed to account for such uncertainties. In this paper, we present a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-23 Xiaoou Li , Jingchen Liu

In this paper, we introduce the $\sigma$-antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for a multi-dimensional diffusion which is an extended version of the original antithetic MLMC one introduced by Giles and Szpruch \cite{a}. Our aim…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-26 Mohamed Ben Alaya , Ahmed Kebaier , Thi Bao Tram Ngo

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-14 Ajay Jasra , Seongil Jo , David Nott , Christine Shoemaker , Raul Tempone

We present a multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) algorithm with adaptively refined meshes and accurately computed stopping-criteria utilizing adjoint-based a posteriori error analysis for differential equations. This is in contrast to classical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-06-08 Jehanzeb Chaudhry , Zachary Stevens

In this work, we study the application the classical Richardson extrapolation (RE) technique to accelerate the convergence of sequences resulting from linear multistep methods (LMMs) for solving initial-value problems of systems of ordinary…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Imre Fekete , Lajos Lóczi

In this work, we extend the hybrid Chernoff tau-leap method to the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) setting. Inspired by the work of Anderson and Higham on the tau-leap MLMC method with uniform time steps, we develop a novel algorithm that is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-11-24 Alvaro Moraes , Raul Tempone , Pedro Vilanova

Subsampling is a widely used and effective approach for addressing the computational challenges posed by massive datasets. Substantial progress has been made in developing non-uniform, probability-based subsampling schemes that prioritize…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Dingyi Wang , Haiying Wang , Qingpei Hu

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , Colin Fox , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl

Distributionally Robust Reinforcement Learning (DR-RL) aims to derive a policy optimizing the worst-case performance within a predefined uncertainty set. Despite extensive research, previous DR-RL algorithms have predominantly favored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-26 Yudan Wang , Shaofeng Zou , Yue Wang

The Multilevel Monte Carlo method is an efficient variance reduction technique. It uses a sequence of coarse approximations to reduce the computational cost in uncertainty quantification applications. The method is nowadays often considered…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-15 Pieterjan Robbe , Dirk Nuyens , Stefan Vandewalle

In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-16 Sundar Ganesh , Fabio Nobile

Modern computational advances have enabled easy parallel implementations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, almost all work in estimating the variance of Monte Carlo averages, including the efficient batch means (BM) estimator,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Kushagra Gupta , Dootika Vats

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approach usually works well when estimating the expected value of a quantity which is a Lipschitz function of intermediate quantities, but if it is a discontinuous function it can lead to a much slower…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Michael B Giles

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) is a recently proposed variation of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation that achieves variance reduction by simulating the governing equations on a series of spatial (or temporal) grids with increasing resolution.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-26 Hillary Fairbanks , Alireza Doostan , Christian Ketelsen , Gianluca Iaccarino

This work addresses uncertainty quantification of electromagnetic devices determined by the eddy current problem. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is used for the treatment of uncertain parameters while the devices are discretized…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-03-24 Armin Galetzka , Zeger Bontinck , Ulrich Römer , Sebastian Schöps

Nested integration problems arise in various scientific and engineering applications, including Bayesian experimental design, financial risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. These nested integrals take the form $\int f\left(\int…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Arved Bartuska , André Gustavo Carlon , Luis Espath , Sebastian Krumscheid , Raúl Tempone

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-06-27 Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani , Rupak Majumdar , Tigran Nagapetyan

The multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method introduced by Giles ({\it Operations Research}, 56(3):607-617, 2008) exploits strong convergence properties to improve the computational complexity by combining simulations with different…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-02 Michael B. Giles , Kristian Debrabant , Andreas Rößler

We apply multilevel Monte Carlo for option pricing problems using exponential L\'{e}vy models with a uniform timestep discretisation to monitor the running maximum required for lookback and barrier options. The numerical results demonstrate…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-31 Mike Giles , Yuan Xia