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We consider the problem of learning the network of mutual excitations (i.e., the dependency graph) in a non-stationary, multivariate Hawkes process. We consider a general setting where baseline rates at each node are time-varying and delay…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Elchanan Mossel , Anirudh Sridhar

Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes that are self-exciting and have clustering effect, with wide applications in finance, social networks and many other fields. This paper considers a self-exciting Hawkes process where…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-01-10 Xuefeng Gao , Xiang Zhou , Lingjiong Zhu

In this paper we provide an expansion formula for Hawkes processes which involves the addition of jumps at deterministic times to the Hawkes process in the spirit of the well-known integration by parts formula (or more precisely the Mecke…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac , Mathieu Rosenbaum

In this paper, we propose an extension of the Hawkes process by incorporating a kernel based on the tempered Mittag-Leffler distribution. This is the generalization of the work presented in [10]. We derive analytical results for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Neha Gupta , Aditya Maheshwari

Hawkes processes are a special class of temporal point processes which exhibit a natural notion of causality, as occurrence of events in the past may increase the probability of events in the future. Discovery of the underlying influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Amirkasra Jalaldoust , Katerina Hlavackova-Schindler , Claudia Plant

The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for the detection of either favored or avoided distances between genomic events along DNA sequences. These events are modeled by a Hawkes process. The biological problem is actually complex…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-11 Patricia Reynaud-Bouret , Sophie Schbath

This study examine the theoretical and empirical perspectives of the symmetric Hawkes model of the price tick structure. Combined with the maximum likelihood estimation, the model provides a proper method of volatility estimation…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-15 Kyungsub Lee , Byoung Ki Seo

We consider a 2-dimensional marked Hawkes process with increasing baseline intensity in order to model prices on electricity intraday markets. This model allows to represent different empirical facts such as increasing market activity,…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-17 Thomas Deschatre , Pierre Gruet

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

We propose a new jump-diffusion process, the Heston-Queue-Hawkes (HQH) model, combining the well-known Heston model and the recently introduced Queue-Hawkes (Q-Hawkes) jump process. Like the Hawkes process, the HQH model can capture the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-13 Luis A. Souto Arias , Pasquale Cirillo , Cornelis W. Oosterlee

We study the distribution of the negative Wiener-Hopf factor for a class of two-sided jumps L\'evy processes whose positive jumps have a rational Laplace transform. The positive Wiener-Hopf factor for this class of processes was studied by…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-09 Ekaterina T. Kolkovska , Ehyter M. Martín-González

This paper is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of the jump rate and the cumulative rate for a general class of non-homogeneous marked renewal processes, defined on a separable metric space. In our framework, the estimation needs only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-04 Romain Azaïs , François Dufour , Anne Gégout-Petit

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-18 Lingjiong Zhu

Aggressive behavior in autistic inpatient youth often arises in temporally clustered bursts complicating efforts to distinguish external triggers from internal escalation. The sample population branching factor-the expected number of new…

Hawkes process provides an effective statistical framework for analyzing the time-dependent interaction of neuronal spiking activities. Although utilized in many real applications, the classic Hawkes process is incapable of modelling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-23 Feng Zhou , Yixuan Zhang , Jun Zhu

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-24 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Abel Rodríguez

The Hawkes process has garnered attention in recent years for its suitability to describe the behavior of online information cascades. Here, we present a fully tractable approach to analytically describe the distribution of the number of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-22 Joseph D. O'Brien , Alberto Aleta , Yamir Moreno , James P. Gleeson

In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is…

Computation · Statistics 2014-09-16 Andrew Golightly , Darren J. Wilkinson

We adopt the interpretability offered by a parametric, Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function for the marks and apply variational inference techniques to derive a general and scalable inferential framework for marked…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Aristeidis Panos , Ioannis Kosmidis , Petros Dellaportas

This study examines the use of a recurrent neural network for estimating the parameters of a Hawkes model based on high-frequency financial data, and subsequently, for computing volatility. Neural networks have shown promising results in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-25 Kyungsub Lee