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Max-stable processes have been expanded to quantify extremal dependence in spatio-temporal data. Due to the interaction between space and time, spatio-temporal data are often complex to analyze. So, characterizing these dependencies is one…
Parameters defined via general estimating equations (GEE) can be estimated by maximizing the empirical likelihood (EL). Newey and Smith [Econometrica 72 (2004) 219--255] have recently shown that this EL estimator exhibits desirable…
We provide a general theory of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring high dimensional latent variable models. In particular, we make two contributions: (i) For parameter estimation, we propose a novel high dimensional EM…
Neural networks are able to approximate any continuous function on a compact set. However, it is not obvious how to quantify the error of the neural network, i.e., the remaining bias between the function and the neural network. Here, we…
This work develops a flexible inferential framework for nonparametric causal inference in time-to-event settings, based on stochastic interventions defined through multiplicative scaling of the intensity governing an intermediate event…
The EVA 2023 data competition consisted of four challenges, ranging from interval estimation for very high quantiles of univariate extremes conditional on covariates, point estimation of unconditional return levels under a custom loss…
For many environmental processes, recent studies have shown that the dependence strength is decreasing when quantile levels increase. This implies that the popular max-stable models are inadequate to capture the rate of joint tail decay,…
We use a functional analogue of the quantile function for probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$ to characterize a novel limit Poisson point process for radially recentred and rescaled random vectors under a radial-directional…
Inference for partially observed Markov process models has been a longstanding methodological challenge with many scientific and engineering applications. Iterated filtering algorithms maximize the likelihood function for partially observed…
We consider the general problem of estimating probabilities which arise as a union of dependent events. We propose a flexible series of estimators for such probabilities, and describe variance reduction schemes applied to the proposed…
An estimation method is proposed for a wide variety of discrete time stochastic processes that have an intractable likelihood function but are otherwise conveniently specified by an integral transform such as the characteristic function,…
This paper is devoted to the prediction problem in extreme value theory. Our main result is an explicit expression of the regular conditional distribution of a max-stable (or max-infinitely divisible) process $\{\eta(t)\}_{t\in T}$ given…
The paper deals with generalized functional regression. The aim is to estimate the influence of covariates on observations, drawn from an exponential distribution. The link considered has a semiparametric expression: if we are interested in…
Complex systems are characterized by a huge number of degrees of freedom often interacting in a non-linear manner. In many cases macroscopic states, however, can be characterized by a small number of order parameters that obey stochastic…
In this article we present very intuitive, easy to follow, yet mathematically rigorous, approach to the so called data fitting process. Rather than minimizing the distance between measured and simulated data points, we prefer to find such…
Modelling excesses over a high threshold using the Pareto or generalized Pareto distribution (PD/GPD) is the most popular approach in extreme value statistics. This method typically requires high thresholds in order for the (G)PD to fit…
In this paper, we propose an efficient importance sampling algorithm for rare event simulation under copula models. In the algorithm, the derived optimal probability measure is based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of the…
Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical tool for analysis of extreme events. It has a strong theoretical background, however, we need to choose hyper-parameters to apply EVT. In recent studies of machine learning, techniques of choosing…
We consider the passage time problem for L\'evy processes, emphasising heavy tailed cases. Results are obtained under quite mild assumptions, namely, drift to $-\infty$ a.s. of the process, possibly at a linear rate (the finite mean case),…
We propose a new perspective for the evaluation of matching procedures by considering the complexity of the function class they belong to. Under this perspective we provide theoretical guarantees on post-matching covariate balance through a…