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We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has successfully mimicked the propagation of such airborne diseases as influenza A (H1N1). Although the SIR model has recently been studied in a multilayer networks configuration, in almost all…
The structure of social contact networks strongly influences the dynamics of epidemic diseases. In particular the scale-free structure of real-world social networks allows unlikely diseases with low infection rates to spread and become…
We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic defined on a configuration model random graph, in which infective individuals can infect only their neighbours in the graph during an infectious period…
The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…
We numerically study disease dynamics that lead to the disease switching from one host species to another, resulting in diseases gaining the ability to infect, e.g., humans. Unlike previous studies that focused on branching processes…
The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population and the infectivity. We derive the large-N…
We discuss the criticality in the stochastic SIR model for infectious diseases. We adopt the path-integral formalism for the propagation of infections among susceptible, infectious, and removed individuals, and perform the perturbative and…
Recent work from public health experts suggests that incorporating human behavior is crucial in faithfully modeling an epidemic. We present a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation SIR-type population model for an epidemic…
Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that…
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…
Inspired by the recent viral epidemic outbreak and its consequent worldwide pandemic, we devise a model to capture the dynamics and the universality of the spread of such infectious diseases. The transition from a pre-critical to the…
The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…
We study epidemic spreading processes in large networks, when the spread is assisted by a small number of external agents: infection sources with bounded spreading power, but whose movement is unrestricted vis-\`a-vis the underlying network…
Fractional-order SIR models have become increasingly popular in the literature in recent years, however unlike the standard SIR model, they often lack a derivation from an underlying stochastic process. Here we derive a fractional-order…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
The classic SIR model of epidemic dynamics is solved completely by quadratures, including a time integral transform expanded in a series of incomplete gamma functions. The model is also generalized to arbitrary time-dependent infection…
We study epidemic outbreaks on random Delaunay triangulations by applying Asynchronous SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model kinetic Monte Carlo dynamics coupled to lattices extracted from the triangulations. In order to investigate the…