Related papers: MLE's bias pathology motivates MCMLE
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in clinical applications through prompt engineering, allowing flexible clinical predictions. However, they struggle to produce reliable prediction probabilities, which are crucial for…
Bias is known to be an impediment to fair decisions in many domains such as human resources, the public sector, health care etc. Recently, hope has been expressed that the use of machine learning methods for taking such decisions would…
Although deep learning models have driven state-of-the-art performance on a wide array of tasks, they are prone to spurious correlations that should not be learned as predictive clues. To mitigate this problem, we propose a causality-based…
We propose plug-in (PI) and double machine learning (DML) estimators of average treatment effect (ATE), average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) and local average treatment effect (LATE) in the multivariate sample selection model with…
Evaluating the cognitive capacities of large language models (LLMs) requires overcoming not only anthropomorphic but also anthropocentric biases. This article identifies two types of anthropocentric bias that have been neglected:…
There is a large body of evidence that decision makers frequently depart from Bayesian updating. This paper introduces a model, robust maximum likelihood (RML) updating, where deviations from Bayesian updating are due to multiple…
Machine Learning (ML) has become an integral aspect of many real-world applications. As a result, the need for responsible machine learning has emerged, focusing on aligning ML models to ethical and social values, while enhancing their…
We study the bias and the mean-squared error of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of parameters associated with a two-parameter mean-reverting process for a finite time $T$. Using the likelihood ratio process, we derive the…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making, yet their susceptibility to cognitive biases remains a pressing challenge. This study explores how personality traits influence these biases and evaluates the…
Spectral learning recently generated lots of excitement in machine learning, largely because it is the first known method to produce consistent estimates (under suitable conditions) for several latent variable models. In contrast, maximum…
Every student in statistics or data science learns early on that when the sample size largely exceeds the number of variables, fitting a logistic model produces estimates that are approximately unbiased. Every student also learns that there…
In this technical note we present a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for a previously studied target parameter that aims to transport an average treatment effect (ATE) on a clinical outcome in a source population to what the ATE…
The handling of probabilities in the form of uncertainty or partial information is an essential task for LLMs in many settings and applications. A common approach to evaluate an LLM's probabilistic reasoning capabilities is to assess its…
In public media as well as in scientific publications, the term \emph{bias} is used in conjunction with machine learning in many different contexts, and with many different meanings. This paper proposes a taxonomy of these different…
Meta analysis is commonly-used to synthesize multiple results from individual studies. However, its validation is usually threatened by publication bias and between-study heterogeneity, which can be captured by the Copas selection model.…
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit cognitive biases -- systematic tendencies of irrational decision-making, similar to those seen in humans. Prior work has found that these biases vary across models and can be amplified by instruction…
We suggest an iterative approach to computing K-step maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the parametric components in semiparametric models based on their profile likelihoods. The higher order convergence rate of K-step MLE mainly depends…
Liver infection is a common disease, which poses a great threat to human health, but there is still able to identify an optimal technique that can be used on large-level screening. This paper deals with ML algorithms using different data…
Many surveys use maximum-likelihood (ML) methods to fit models when extracting photometry from images. We show these ML estimators systematically overestimate the flux as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio and the number of model…
Do large language models (LLMs) exhibit systematic ideological bias when reasoning about economic causal effects? As LLMs are increasingly used in policy analysis and economic reporting, where directionally correct causal judgments are…