Related papers: Malliavin weight sampling: a practical guide
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are widely used but often encounter either slow convergence or biased sampling when applied to multimodal high dimensional distributions. In this paper, we present a general framework of…
The reliability of a complex industrial system can rarely be assessed analytically. As system failure is often a rare event, crude Monte-Carlo methods are prohibitively expensive from a computational point of view. In order to reduce…
In this paper, we establish existence, uniqueness, and regularity properties of the solutions to multi-dimensional backward stochastic Volterra integral equations (BSVIEs), whose (possibly random) generator reflects nonlinear dependence on…
In this comment on "Solving Statistical Mechanics Using Variational Autoregressive Networks" by Wu et al., we propose a subtle yet powerful modification of their approach. We show that the inherent sampling error of their method can be…
We consider distributed estimation of the inverse covariance matrix, also called the concentration or precision matrix, in Gaussian graphical models. Traditional centralized estimation often requires global inference of the covariance…
We show that for any multiple-try Metropolis algorithm, one can always accept the proposal and evaluate the importance weight that is needed to correct for the bias without extra computational cost. This results in a general, convenient,…
The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo…
This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…
In this paper, we examine the computational complexity of sampling from a Bayesian posterior (or pseudo-posterior) using the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA). MALA first employs a discrete-time Langevin SDE to propose a new…
We derive consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for the drift and volatility parameters of the stochastic heat equation driven by an additive space-only white noise when the solution is sampled discretely in the physical domain.…
In this paper, prediction for linear systems with missing information is investigated. New methods are introduced to improve the Mean Squared Error (MSE) on the test set in comparison to state-of-the-art methods, through appropriate tuning…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods are Bayesian analogs to popular stochastic optimization methods; however, this connection is not well studied. We explore this relationship by applying simulated annealing to an…
The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…
Conventional Monte Carlo simulations are stochastic in the sense that the acceptance of a trial move is decided by comparing a computed acceptance probability with a random number, uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. Here we consider the…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…
Averaging neural network weights sampled by a backbone stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a simple yet effective approach to assist the backbone SGD in finding better optima, in terms of generalization. From a statistical perspective,…
We introduce a new approach for prudent risk evaluation based on stochastic dominance, which will be called the model aggregation (MA) approach. In contrast to the classic worst-case risk (WR) approach, the MA approach produces not only a…
We propose quantum algorithms that provide provable speedups for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods commonly used for sampling from probability distributions of the form $\pi \propto e^{-f}$, where $f$ is a potential function. Our…
We study numerical methods for sampling probability measures in high dimension where the underlying model is only approximately identified with a gradient system. Extended stochastic dynamical methods are discussed which have application to…